182 AXPZ20 KNHC 091605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Aug 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm John is centered near 24.5N 117.3W at 1500 UTC or about 415 nm WNW of the southern tip of Baja California moving NW or 305 degrees at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered moderate isolated strong convection within 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant and within 30 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. John will continue to weaken as it moves to near 26.6N 121.1W early on Fri, with maximum sustained winds of 40 kt gusts to 50 kt, then weaken to a remnant low on Sat as it moves farther away from the Baja peninsula. Swells from John will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula. The swells are forecast to reach the coast of southern California this afternoon. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ32 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Kristy is centered near 16.1N 130.3W at 1500 UTC, moving NNW or 345 degrees at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds have increases to 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows that the cyclone has continued to become better organized during the morning. Deep convection, in the form scattered moderate to strong intensity, has increased within 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant, and within 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere within 150 nm NE and 120 NM SW of the center. Kristy will move northward along 130W during the next 24 hours with little change in intensity. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 92W north of 05N is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 E and 120 nm W of the axis from 06N to 09N. A tropical wave axis extends from 03N108W to 16N107W, moving westward near 17 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 06N to 10N W of the wave to 112W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N79W to 10N92W to 11N103W, then resumes from 13N133W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N E of 81W, and within 180 nm S of axis between 81W and 87W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm SE of axis W of 133W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm John. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A brief period of fresh to strong northerly winds is expected this morning, with seas building to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly nocturnal drainage flow is expected to 120 nm downstream of the gulf this evening through Fri night. Gulf of California: Large southerly swell from John with seas to 8 ft S of 24N and southerly winds to 20 kt will diminish today as the tropical storm moves NW, passing W of Baja California. John will move NW, parallel to the coast of Baja California today. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Friday. Swells propagating away from John will reach the Baja California coastline today. A weak ridge will build between John and Baja California Peninsula by Fri as the cyclone moves away from the offshore waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE to E nocturnal flow is expected through the end of this week. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, which will meander between 07N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are expected S of the trough through the end of this week. Seas in the range of 4-6 ft will generally prevail, except for 6-7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details regarding Tropical Storms John and Kristy, which will affect the waters N of 10N W of 110W during the next several days. Large swell will propagate well away from John through Friday. The areas of 8 ft seas generated by swell from John and Kristy will merge later today, with a large area of 8 ft seas likely enveloping most of the waters N of 15N and W of 110W through Fri. A ridge will dominate the NW portion of the area this weekend. The pressure gradient between John and high pressure to the NW will bring increasing winds across the NW part of the forecast area Fri and through the weekend. $$ Aguirre