989 AXPZ20 KNHC 090330 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Aug 8 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane John centered near 23.1N 114.4W at 0300 UTC or 250 nm W of The Southern Tip Of Baja California moving NW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere within 240 nm east of the center. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Kristy centered near 15.3N 130.0W at 0300 UTC, moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 75 nm east and 30 nm west of the center, and scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 150 nm SE of the center. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave along 89W north of 06N is moving westward at 10- 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the axis from 06N to 08N. A tropical wave along 103W from 06N to 16N is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the axis from 08N to 13N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 09N88W to 09N93W to 11N100W to 09N107W to 11N121W, then resumes from 13N133W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 45 nm south of the axis west of 133W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane John. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A brief period of fresh to strong northerly winds is expected tonight, with seas building to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly nocturnal drainage flow is expected up to 120 nm downstream of the gulf Thu through Fri night. Gulf of California: Large southerly swell from John will cause seas to build to 8-9 ft S of 24N, with southerly winds to 20 kt tonight as the hurricane moves NW, passing W of Cabo San Lucas. John will continue to move NW and parallel to the coast of Baja California through Thu evening. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Friday. A weak ridge will build between John and Baja California Peninsula by Fri as the tropical cyclone moves away from the offshore waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE to E nocturnal flow is expected through the end of this week. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, which will meander between 07N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are expected S of the trough through the end of this week. 4-6 ft seas will generally prevail, except for 6-7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details regarding Hurricane John and Tropical Storm Kristy, which will affect the waters N of 10N W of 110W during the next several days. Large swell will propagate well away from John through the end of this week. The areas of 8 ft seas generated by swell from Hurricane John and Tropical Storm Kristy will merge on Thu, with a large area of 8 ft seas likely enveloping most of the waters N of 15N and W of 110W the remainder of this week. A ridge will dominate the NW portion of the forecast area this upcoming weekend. The pressure gradient between John and high of 1034 mb to the NW will bring increasing winds of 15 to 20 kt across the NW part of the forecast region. $$ Mundell