655 AXPZ20 KNHC 071602 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1404 UTC Tue Aug 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane John centered near 17.9N 109.8W at 07/1500 UTC or 300 nm S of The Southern Tip Of Baja California moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered moderate and strong convection associated with John and the remnants of Tropical Storm Ileana is found within 240 nm of a line from 22N110W to 14N108W. John is moving toward the NW around 8 kt, and a faster NW motion is forecast for the next few days as it heads NW from the waters SW of Cabo Corrientes. On this forecast track, John should pass to the SW of Baja California Sur late Wednesday into Thursday. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and John is could become a major hurricane tonight or early Wednesday. Hurricane John is a very large system and is producing a large area of 8 ft seas. Seas of 8 ft or greater will affect the waters adjacent to southern Mexico through Wed night and the waters W of Baja California through Fri night. Steady weakening is expected to begin Wednesday night and continue into early Friday.Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC for additional details. Tropical Storm Kristy centered near 13.8N 126.5W at 07/1500 UTC or 1090 nm WSW of the Southern Tip of Baja California moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate and strong convection is taking place within 150 nm of the center. Kristy is moving toward the W around 8 kt. Kristy should move W today, then gradually turn toward the WNW and NW tonight through Thursday. Kristy could become a hurricane during the next day or so. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details. The remnants of Tropical Storm Ileana are centered near 20.5N 109.0W at 07/1500 UTC or 150 nm SSE of The Southern Tip of Baja California moving W at 22 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Ileana is rapidly weakening as a result of its interaction with Hurricane John, which is a much larger system. Ileana is expected to dissipate by this evening. The convection associated with Ileana has become incorporated with the convection associated with outer rain bands of Hurricane John. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC for additional details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough stretches from 12N86W to 11N96W to 13N106W, then resumes from 13N109W to 14N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present within an area bounded by 13N103W to 13N95W to 05N77W to 04N98W to 13N103W and within 75 nm of 10.5N136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features Paragraph above for details on Hurricane John which is expected to continue affecting the offshore waters between Puerto Angel and Baja California Sur during the next several days. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong nocturnal northerly drainage flow is expected over and up to about 120 nm downstream of the gulf waters through Wed night. Gulf of California: Fresh S winds will pulse to strong speeds early this morning and again tonight N of 29N. Light to moderate southerly flow is expected elsewhere through today. Large southerly swell will cause seas for the Gulf waters S of 26N to build to between 8 and 16 ft Wed and Wed night as Hurricane John passes SW of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. In addition, S winds will increase to between 20 and 25 kt S of 25N Wed and Wed night as the eastern flank of John reaches the area. Outside of the tropical cyclones, a weak pressure pattern will be in place due to the disruption of the typical ridging NW of the region. This will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds over the Pacific offshore waters outside of the circulations of the tropical cyclones. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong nocturnal NE to E flow is expected through the end of this week. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 07N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through early this week accompanied by 4 to 6 ft seas, except 6 to 7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features Paragraph above for details regarding Hurricane John and Tropical Storm Kristy which will affect the waters N of 10N during the next several days. Large swell greater than 8 ft will likely propagate at least several hundred miles away from Hurricane John through the end of this week, as it has becomes a very large system. Swell from Hurricane Hector have subsided as it continues W into the Central Pacific. This has allowed seas in the discussion waters from 05N and 20N in the vicinity of 140W to subside below 8 ft. Swell from Tropical Storm Kristy will affect the waters primarily N of 10N and W of 120W through the remainder of the week. Ridging from 32N136W to 20N119W will retract NW during the next few days as John and Kristy affect the waters N of the monsoon trough. John will have the most effect on the ridge due to its size. Strong NW winds west of the western United States will produce northerly swell that will cause seas to build to 8 ft or above for the discussion waters N of 25N between 119W and 125W through Wed morning, before the swell merges with that from Hurricane John. $$ CAM