548 AXPZ20 KNHC 070915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0915 UTC Tue Aug 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane John centered near 17.3N 109.1W at 07/0900 UTC or 340 nm S of The Southern Tip Of Baja California moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 12N to 20N between 104W and 115W. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC for additional details. Tropical Storm Ileana centered near 19.4N 106.9W at 07/0900 UTC or 270 nm SE of The Southern Tip Of Baja California moving WNW at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 19N to 23N between 104W and 108W. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC for additional details. Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Kristy centered near 14.3N 125.1W at 07/0900 UTC or 1000 nm WSW of The Southern Tip Of Baja California moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 12N to 16N between 123W and 128W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough stretches from 09N77W to 09N88W to 07N95W to 12N102W. The ITCZ extends from 14N127W to 12N132W to 14N138W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 07N to 15N E of 100W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of a line from 15N139W to 08N130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features Paragraph above for details on Hurricane John and Tropical Storm Ileana which are expected to continue affecting the offshore waters between Puerto Angel and Baja California Sur during the next several days. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong nocturnal northerly drainage flow is expected across, and about 120 nm downstream, of the gulf waters through Wed night. Gulf of California: Fresh S winds will pulse to strong speeds early this morning and again tonight N of 29N. Light to moderate southerly flow is expected elsewhere through today. Large southerly swell will cause seas for the Gulf waters S of 26N to build to between 8 and 14 ft Wed and Wed night as Hurricane John passes SW of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. In addition, southerly flow will increase to 20 to 25 kt S of 25N Wed and Wed night as the eastern flank of John reaches the area. Outside of the tropical cyclones, a weak pressure pattern will be in place due to the disruption of the typical ridging NW of the region. This will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds over the Pacific offshore waters outside of the circulations of the tropical cyclones. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong nocturnal easterly flow is expected through the end of this week. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 07N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through early this week accompanied by 4 to 6 ft seas, except 6 to 7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features Paragraph above for details regarding Hurricane John, Tropical Storm Ileana, and Tropical Storm Kristy which will affect the waters N of 10N during the next several days. Large swell greater than 8 ft will likely propagate at least several hundred miles away from Hurricane John through the end of this week, as it has becomes a very large system. Swell to 10 ft from Hurricane Hector over the discussion waters will diminish during the next 12 hours as the system moves farther west of 140W. Swell from Tropical Storm Kristy will affect the waters primarily N of 10N and W of 120W through the remainder of the week. Ridging from 30N133W to 20N115W will retract NW during the next few days as the 3 systems mentioned previously affect the waters N of the monsoon trough. John will have the most effect on the ridge due to its size. Strong NW winds west of the western United States will produce northerly swell that will cause seas to build to 8 ft or above for the discussion waters N of 25N between 119W and 125W this afternoon through Wed morning, before the swell merges with that from Hurricane John. Cross equatorial mixed SE and SW swell of 8 ft that extends as far N as 7N between 112W and 120W will subside below 8 ft by this evening. $$ Latto