634 AXPZ20 KNHC 062112 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1856 UTC Mon Aug 6 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Hurricane John is centered near 16.0N 108.0W at 06/2100 UTC or 460 nm SSE of the Southern Tip Of Baja California moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Convection associated with Tropical Storm Ileana has consolidated with the convection associated with Hurricane John. Scattered moderate and strong convection associated with John and Ileana is seen within an area bounded by 21N106W to 11.5N97W to 11N110W to 18N115W to 21N106W. John is undergoing rapid strengthening and this trend is predicted to continue during the next day or so. John could reach major hurricane strength by late Tuesday. John is moving toward the NW and a faster NW motion is forecast for the next few days as John parallels the coast of southern Mexico and Baja California Sur. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC for additional details. Hurricane Hector is centered W of the discussion area near 15.2N 143.1W at 06/2100 UTC moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 936 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt. All of the significant convection associated with Hector has moved to the W of 140W. Hector is expected to continue tracking W to WNW through Tue. Winds and seas in the discussion area from 06N to 22N W of 135W will subside below advisory levels on Tue as Hector heads farther into the central Pacific. Additional information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc. Tropical Storm Ileana centered near 17.0N 103.3W at 06/2100 UTC or 215 nm SE of Manzanillo Mexico moving NW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. The convection associated with Ileana has already merged with the convection associated with John. Ileana has begin to weaken as it interacts with Tropical Storm John and as a result is forecasted to begin weakening Tuesday afternoon and dissipate Tue night. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC for additional details. An elongated area of low pressure resides over the eastern Pacific near 15N122W. The low measures 1006 mb and possesses scattered moderate and strong convection is present within 150 nm of a line from 14.5N117W to 12N123W to 12N130W. This system will continue to move W during the next couple of days. Strong winds in the vicinity of this system are expected to consolidate closer to the system center and increase to near gale force. This system retains a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS header ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough stretches from 09N76W to 09N84W to 07N91W to 12N100W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found within 30 nm of a line from 13N135W to 10N140W. Isolated moderate and strong convection is occurring within 60 nm of a line from 06N77W to 05N85W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features Paragraph above for details on Hurricane John and Tropical Storm Ileana which are expected to continue affecting the offshore waters between Puerto Angel and Baja California Sur during the next several days. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong nocturnal northerly drainage flow is expected across, and about 120 nm downstream, of the gulf waters through Wed night. Winds will be the strongest tonight when they could reach near gale force. Gulf of California: Fresh S winds will pulse to strong speeds tonight and Tue night N of 29N. Light to moderate southerly flow is expected elsewhere through Tue. Large southerly swell will cause seas for the Gulf waters S of 25N to build to between 8 and 10 ft Wed and Wed night as Hurricane John passes SW of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. In addition, southerly flow will increase to 20 to 25 kt S of 25N Wed and Wed night as the eastern flank of John reaches the area. Outside of the tropical cyclones, a weak pressure pattern will be in place due to the disruption of the typical ridging NW of the region. This will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds over the Pacific offshore waters outside of the circulations of the tropical cyclones. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong nocturnal easterly flow is expected through the end of this week. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through early this week accompanied by 4 to 6 ft seas, except 6 to 7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features Paragraph above for details regarding Hurricanes John and Hector, Tropical Storm Ileana and a tropical low pressure system which may affect the waters N of 10N during the next several days. Large swell greater than 8 ft will likely propagate at least several hundred miles away from Hurricane John through the end of this week, as it has become a very large system. Significant effects from Hector for the discussion waters will diminish during the next 24 hours as the system moves farther west of 140W. Ridging from 32N131W to 19N115W will retract NW during the next few days as the 3 systems mentioned previously affect the waters N of the monsoon trough. John will have the most effect on the ridge due to its size. Strong NW winds west of the western United States will produce northerly swell that will cause seas to build to 8 ft or above for the discussion waters N of 25N between 119W and 125W Tue afternoon through Wed morning. $$ CAM