738 AXPZ20 KNHC 060331 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0330 UTC Mon Aug 6 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Hector centered near 14.7N 139.2W at 06/0300 UTC or 980 nm ESE of South Point Hawaii moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is seen elsewhere from 08N to 17N W of 136W. This system is moving W of 140W soon, and therefore the next advisory will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. For more details, refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 11 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc. Tropical Storm Ileana centered near 14.3N 99.3W at 06/0300 UTC or 160 nm SSE of Acapulco Mexico moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is observed within 90 nm of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere from 10N to 16N between 96W and 102W. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC for additional details. Recently upgraded Tropical Storm John centered near 14.9N 106.2W at 06/0300 UTC or 270 nm SSW of Manzanillo Mexico moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm of the NW semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 11N to 19N between 102W and 111W. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC for additional details. A broad area of low pressure is over the eastern Pacific with one surface low of 1005 mb analyzed near 14N118W, and the other low of 1007 mb analyzed near 14N122W accompanied by numerous moderate and scattered strong convection from 12N to 16N between 116W and 125W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 09N to 18N between 119W and 130W. This system will continue to move WNW with strong to near gale force winds developing near the system center. This system has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS header ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough crosses Panama near 08N80W and extends to 08N85W to 12N93W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is N of 13N between 91W and 95W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features Paragraph above for details on Tropical Storm Ileana and recently upgraded Tropical Storm John that are expected to affect the offshore waters between 100W and 117W during the next several days. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong nocturnal northerly drainage flow is expected across, and about 120 nm downstream, of the gulf waters through Wed night. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected along 30N through Tue when moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected to develop and last through early Wed. Light to gentle southerly flow is expected elsewhere through Tue. Large southerly swell up to 15 ft is forecast across the southern gulf waters beginning late Tue in association with Tropical Storm John and Tropical Storm Ileana passing SW of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. This swell may cover the entire entrance to the Gulf of California. In addition, southerly flow will increase to 20 to 30 kt S of 25N Wed and Wed night as the outer fringes of these systems pass by. Outside of the tropical cyclones, a weak pressure pattern will be in place due to the disruption of the typical ridging NW of the region. This will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds over the Pacific offshore waters outside of the circulations of the tropical cyclones. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong nocturnal easterly flow is expected through the middle of this week. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through early this week accompanied by 4 to 6 ft seas, except 6 to 7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features Paragraph above for details regarding Hurricane Hector, a tropical low pressure system, and Tropical Storm John that may affect the waters N of 10N the next several days, with large swell greater than 8 ft likely propagating several hundred miles away from the system centers. Ridging from 31N133W to 20N115W will retract NW early this week as the tropical cyclones mentioned previously affect the waters N of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast elsewhere S of the monsoon trough, or roughly to the S of 10N for the next several days. $$ Latto