412 AXPZ20 KNHC 052247 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1959 UTC Sun Aug 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Hector centered near 14.4N 138.0W at 05/2100 UTC or 1055 nm E of South Point Hawaii moving W around 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is observed within 90 nm SE and within 45 nm NW semicircles of center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere within 120 nm of center. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC for additional details. Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Ileana is centered near 13.6N 98.1W at 05/2100 UTC or 145 nm SSW of Puerto Escondido Mexico moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is observed within 90 nm in the W and within 45 nm in the E semicircles. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere within 210 nm of center. Tropical Storm Ileana will strengthen slowly until it nears 16.2N 102.3W Mon afternoon, move to 17.9N 104.6W Mon night, 19.2N 106.7W Tue afternoon, and 20.5N 112.0W Wed morning. Ileana will dissipate by Wed night as it merges with Tropical Depression Twelve-E. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC for additional details. Newly formed Tropical Depression Twelve-E is centered near 11.1N 99.9W and is moving NW at 6 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is taking place in the W quadrant of this system within 150 nm. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed elsewhere from 11N to 18N between 101W and 109W. This depression is forecast to move NW and become a tropical storm tonight and be near 16N107.4W Mon afternoon, then move to near 16N107.4W Mon night. This system will continue intensifying and head NW across the far offshore waters to just SW of the Revillagigedo Islands near 16.9N108.3W as a hurricane by Tue evening, then to SW of Cabo San Lucas near 20.5N 112.8W Wed afternoon. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC for additional details. A 1007 mb surface low is analyzed near 12N121W accompanied by numerous moderate and scattered strong convection within 60 nm of 14N117W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present elsewhere from 10N to 16N between 114W and 125W. This low is forecast to reach near 14N121W tonight, and near 15N125W on Tue morning with strong to near gale force winds developing within 150 nm of the center. This low has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS header ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis analyzed from 07N78W to 20N78W, This system currently is not generating significant convection over the discussion area. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 09N88W to 12N92W, then resumes from 15N111W to low pres 1007 mb centered near 13N105W to 14N112W to low pres 1007 MB centered near 12N121W to 14N128W. besides the features mentioned above, there is no significant convection associated with the monsoon trough. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features Paragraph above for details on Tropical Storm Ileana and newly formed Tropical Depression Twelve-E that are expected to affect the offshore waters between 100W and 117W during the next several days. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong nocturnal northerly drainage flow is expected across, and about 120 nm downstream, of the gulf waters through Wed night. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected along 30N through Tue when moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected to develop and last through early Wed. Light to gentle southerly flow is expected elsewhere through early Thu. Long period southerly swell is forecast across the southern gulf waters beginning late Tue in association with a tropical low passing SW of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Otherwise, a broad N-NW to S-SE orientated trough will meander E to W across the Baja California Peninsula and the Gulf of California through early next week. Gentle to locally moderate NW breezes, and 3 to 5 ft seas, are forecast W of 108W outside of the conditions associated with the developing tropical low as it approaches late Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong nocturnal easterly flow is expected through the middle of this week. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 09N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through early this week accompanied by 4 to 6 ft seas, except 6 to 7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features Paragraph above for details regarding Hurricane Hector and two developing tropical lows that may affect the waters N of 10N the next several days. A ridge will extend from near 32N135W to 19N110W through tonight, supporting moderate N to NE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas. The ridge will retract NW early this week as the tropical cyclones mentioned previously affect the waters N of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast elsewhere S of the monsoon trough, or roughly to the S of 10N for the next several days. $$ CAM