093 AXPZ20 KNHC 051641 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1515 UTC Sun Aug 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Hector centered near 14.4N 136.9W at 05/1500 UTC or 1115 nm E of South Point Hawaii moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is observed within 30 nm of center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere within 90 nm of center. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC for additional details. Tropical Depression Eleven-E centered near 13.5N 97.3W at 05/1500 UTC or 140 nm S of Puerto Escondido Mexico moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is observed in the SW semicircle within 90 nm. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere within 210 nm of center. Eleven-E will strengthen to a tropical storm as it nears 15.3N 100.8W Mon morning, move to 16.9N 103.8W Mon evening, 18.3N 106.5W Tue morning, and 20.5N 112.0W Wed morning. Eleven-E will merge with the system in the next paragraph by Wed night. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC for additional details. Gale Warning: A 1007 mb surface low is analyzed at 13N105W and is moving NW at around 5 to 10 kt accompanied by scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 11N to 18N between 101W and 109W. This low is forecast to move NW to near 14N106W tonight and near 15.5N106.5W on Mon morning, with a high probability of becoming a tropical cyclone. Even if the convection does not become organized, the pressure gradient will support minimal gale force winds beginning late tonight. This low will continue NW across the far offshore waters to W of Baja California Sur by Wed night. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS header ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. A 1007 mb surface low is analyzed near 12N119W accompanied by numerous moderate and scattered strong convection within 90 nm of 14n116w. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 10N to 17N between 111W and 125W. This low is forecast to reach near 14N121W tonight, and near 15N125W on Tue morning with strong to near gale force winds developing within 150 nm of the center. This low has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS header ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis analyzed from 07N76W to 20N76W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found N of 03N and E of 79W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends 09N78W to 09N88W to 12N92W, then resumes from 13N101W to low pres 1007 mb centered near 13N105W to 14N112W to low pres 1007 MB centered near 12N119W to 15N127W. besides the features mentioned above, there is no significant convection associated with the monsoon trough. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features Paragraph above for details on Tropical Depression Eleven-E and a developing tropical low that are expected to affect the offshore waters between 100W and 117W the next several days. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong nocturnal northerly drainage flow is expected across, and about 120 nm downstream, of the gulf waters through Wed night. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected along 30N through Tue when moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected to develop and last through early Wed. Light to gentle southerly flow is expected elsewhere through early Thu. Long period southerly swell is forecast across the southern gulf waters beginning late Tue in association with a tropical low passing SW of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Otherwise, a broad N-NW to S-SE orientated trough will meander E to W across the Baja California Peninsula and the Gulf of California through early next week. Gentle to locally moderate NW breezes, and 3 to 5 ft seas, are forecast W of 108W outside of the conditions associated with the developing tropical low as it approaches late Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong nocturnal easterly flow is expected through the middle of this week. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 09N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through early this week accompanied by 4 to 6 ft seas, except 6 to 7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features Paragraph above for details regarding Hurricane Hector and two developing tropical lows that may affect the waters N of 10N the next several days. A ridge will meander from 32N135W to 19N110W through tonight, supporting moderate N to NE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas. The ridge will retract NW early this week as the tropical lows previously mentioned affect the waters N of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast elsewhere S of the monsoon trough, or roughly to the S of 10N for the next several days. $$ CAM