207 AXPZ20 KNHC 050915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0915 UTC Sun Aug 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Hector centered near 14.4N 135.7W at 05/0900 UTC or 1180 nm E of South Point Hawaii moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 90 nm of center. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC for additional details. Tropical Depression Eleven-E centered near 13.0N 96.9W at 05/0900 UTC or 170 nm S of Puerto Angel Mexico moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed from 10N to 14N between 94W and 99W. Eleven-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 13.5N 98.5W this afternoon, move to 14.6N 100.5W Mon morning, 16.0N 103.1W Mon afternoon, 17.5N 105.8W Tue morning, and 20.0N 111.4W Wed morning. Eleven-E will dissipate early Thu. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC for additional details. Gale Warning: A 1007 mb surface low is analyzed at 13N104W and is moving NW at around 5 to 10 kt accompanied by numerous moderate isolated strong convection from 10N to 14N between 100W and 108W. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N to 17N between 105W and 108W. This low is forecast to move NW to near 14.5N105W tonight and near 16N107W on Mon night, with a high probability of becoming a tropical cyclone. Even if the convection does not become organized, the pressure gradient will support minimal gale force winds beginning tonight. This low will continue NW across the far offshore waters between 104W and 118W through late this week. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS header ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. A 1007 mb surface low is analyzed near 12N119W accompanied by scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 10N to 17N between 118W and 123W. This low is forecast to reach near 14N121W tonight, and near 15N125W on Mon night with strong to near gale force winds developing within 210 nm of the center. This low has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS header ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis analyzed from 20N92W to 13N93W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the wave axis S of 16N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W from Panama near 09N79W to 08N86W to 12N93W to 14N110W to 15N127W. Aside from convection associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E and the special feature lows, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 108W and 118W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features Paragraph above for details on Tropical Depression Eleven-E and a developing tropical low that are expected to affect the offshore waters between 100W and 117W the next several days. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong nocturnal northerly drainage flow is expected across, and about 120 nm downstream, of the gulf waters through Wed night. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected along 30N through Tue when moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected to develop and last through early Wed. Light to gentle southerly flow is expected elsewhere through early Thu. Long period southerly swell is forecast across the southern gulf waters beginning late Tue in association with a tropical low passing SW of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Otherwise, a broad N-NW to S-SE orientated trough will meander E to W across the Baja California Peninsula and the Gulf of California through early next week. Gentle to locally moderate NW breezes, and 3 to 5 ft seas, are forecast W of 108W outside of the conditions associated with the developing tropical low as it approaches late Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong nocturnal easterly flow is expected through the middle of this week. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 09N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through early this week accompanied by 4 to 6 ft seas, except 6 to 7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features Paragraph above for details regarding Hurricane Hector and two developing tropical lows that may affect the waters N of 10N the next several days. A ridge will meander from 32N135W to 19N110W through tonight, supporting moderate N to NE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas. The ridge will retract NW early this week as the tropical lows previously mentioned affect the waters N of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast elsewhere S of the monsoon trough, or roughly to the S of 10N for the next several days. $$ Latto