688 AXPZ20 KNHC 040932 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0930 UTC Sat Aug 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Hector centered near 14.3N 131.7W at 04/0900 UTC or 1380 nm E of Hilo Hawaii moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 90 nm of center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed elsewhere from 11N to 15N between 127W and 132W. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC for additional details. A surface low is drifting west-northwest along the monsoon trough near 12N101W and is accompanied by scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 12N to 15N between 99W and 106W, and from 07N to 11N between 102W and 106W. This low is forecast to move to an estimated position near 12N102W on Sat evening and then near 13N104W on Sun evening. The low is then expected to continue NW across the far offshore waters between 104W and 117W through the middle of next week. Due to the high probability for this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours and model guidance being in reasonable agreement on the development of gale force winds associated with this system in the next 48 hours, a gale warning has been issued effective beginning at 0600 UTC Mon. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS header ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP and the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS header FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 for additional information. A surface low is along the monsoon trough near 12N115W accompanied by scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 10N to 17N between 113W and 118W. This low has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves west to west-northwestward over the open eastern Pacific waters. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS header ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed with an axis extending from 18N101W through a 1009 mb low near 12N101W to 08N101W, and is estimated to be moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Please see the special features section for more details. A tropical wave is analyzed with an axis extending from 18N115W through a 1008 mb low near 12N115W to 09N115W, and is estimated to be progressing W at 10 to 15 kt. Please see the special features section for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 11N90W through the special features low near 12N101W, then through another special features low near 12N115W to 14N124W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves and special features, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are from 08N to 16N between 88W and 99W, and from 09N to 15N between 106W and 113W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features Section above. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong nocturnal northerly drainage flow is occurring tonight across, and about 120 nm downstream, of the gulf waters. These winds are expected to return each night the next several nights beginning again Sun night, with a temporary break Sat night due to the developing low to the SW of the area. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected along 30N while light to gentle southerly flow is expected elsewhere through early Tue when guidance suggests moderate southerly flow will develop across the entire gulf waters. Long period southerly swell is forecast across the southern gulf waters beginning Tue night in association with a tropical low passing SW of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Otherwise, a broad N-NW to S-SE orientated trough will meander E to W across the Baja California Peninsula and the Gulf of California through early next week. Gentle to locally moderate NW breezes, and 3 to 5 ft seas, are forecast outside of the Tehuantepec region until the developing tropical low SW of Tehuantepec moves NW, bringing with it increasing winds and seas. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... See Special Features Section above. Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh nocturnal easterly flow is expected through Sun with guidance suggesting strong winds on Sun night and again on Wed night. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 09N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through early next week accompanied by 4 to 6 ft seas, except 6 to 7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features Section above. A ridge will meander from 33N133W to 20N110W through the upcoming weekend, supporting moderate N to NE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas. The ridge will retract NW early next week as potential tropical cyclones discussed in the special features section move across the region, bringing with them increasing winds and building seas. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast elsewhere S of the monsoon trough, or roughly to the S of 10N for the next several days. $$ Latto