444 AXPZ20 KNHC 040342 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 340 UTC Sat Aug 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Hector is centered near 14.2N 130.9W at 04/0300 UTC or 1430 nm E of Hilo Hawaii moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 90 nm of center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 60 nm either side of a line from 15N125W to 10N132W. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC for additional details. A disorganized surface low continues to drift west along the monsoon trough near 10N101W and is accompanied by scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 08N to 14N between 97W and 103W. This low is forecast to move NW to an estimated position near 12N102W on Sat evening and near 13N104W on Sun evening. The low is expected to continue NW across the far offshore waters between 100W and 117W through the middle of next week. Although track and intensity are uncertain, mariners should expect at least increasing winds followed by strong to near gale force winds, and building seas over the coming days. This low has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS header ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. A surface low is along the monsoon trough near 13N115W accompanied by scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 13N to 17N between 111W and 118W. This low has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves west to west-northwestward over the open eastern Pacific waters. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS header ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed with an axis extending from 18N100W through a 1008 mb low near 10N101W to 06N101W, and is estimated to be moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Please see the special features section for more details. A tropical wave is analyzed with an axis extending from 18N115W through a 1007 mb low near 13N115W to 09N115W, and is estimated to be progressing W at 10 to 15 kt. Please see the special features section for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N77W to 12N92W through the special features low near 10N101W, then through another special features low near 13N115W to 13N124W. The monsoon trough then breaks and continues west of Hurricane Hector near 11N131W to 09N140W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves and special features, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is N of 07N E of 81W, from 09N to 14N between 90W and 97W, and within 180 nm of the monsoon trough axis between 103W and 111W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features Section above. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong nocturnal northerly drainage flow is expected to resume tonight across, and about 120 nm downstream, of the gulf waters. These winds are expected to return each night through most of the upcoming week. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected along 30N while light to gentle southerly flow is expected elsewhere through early Tue when guidance suggests moderate southerly flow will develop across the entire gulf waters. Long period southerly swell is forecast across the southern gulf waters beginning Tue night in association with a tropical low passing SW of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Otherwise, a broad N-NW to S-SE orientated trough will meander E to W across the Baja California Peninsula and the Gulf of California through early next week. Gentle to locally moderate NW breezes, and 3 to 5 ft seas, are forecast outside of the Tehuantepec region until the developing tropical low SW of Tehuantepec moves NW, just west of the area, bringing with it increased winds and building seas. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... See Special Features Section above. Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh nocturnal easterly flow is expected through Sun with guidance suggesting strong winds on Sun night and again on Wed night. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 09N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through early next week accompanied by 4 to 6 ft seas, except 6 to 7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features Section above. A ridge will meander from 33N133W to 20N110W through the upcoming weekend, supporting moderate N to NE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas. The ridge will retract W early next week as potential tropical cyclones discussed in the special features section move across the region, bringing with them increasing winds and building seas. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast elsewhere S of the monsoon trough, or roughly to the S of 10N for the next several days. $$ Latto