039 AXPZ20 KNHC 032154 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Aug 03 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Hector centered near 14.1N 129.8W at 03/2100 UTC or 1490 nm E of Hilo Hawaii moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 90 nm of center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 45 nm either side of a line from 15N125W to 10N132W. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC for additional details. A disorganized surface low has developed along the monsoon trough near 10N100W and is accompanied by scattered moderate isolated strong convection within 120 nm either side of a line from 08N96W to 11N106W. This low is forecast to move NW to an estimated position near 12N102W on Sat and near 13N103W on Sun. The low is expected to continue NW across the far offshore waters between 100W and 117W through the middle of next week. Although track and intensity are uncertain, mariners should expect at least increasing southerly winds followed by strong to near gale force easterly winds, and building seas. This low has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS header ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. A surface low has developed along the monsoon trough near 13N113.5W accompanied by scattered moderate isolated strong convection within 120 nm either side of a line from 15N115W to 11N116W with the convection organizing into bands. This low has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS header ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed N of 07N along 81.5W and is estimated to be moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is currently noted to the N of 02N E of 82W. A tropical wave is analyzed N of 09N along 96.5W and is estimated to be progressing W at 18 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is currently noted over water within 300 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave extends from 06N119W to 18N118W and is moving W at 12 kt. Isolated moderate to strong convection is observed FROM 08N to 13N within 210 nm of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W off the Caribbean coast of Colombia at 09N76W and extends W across Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 08N84W, then continues NW to 10N93W, then turns SW through an embedded surface low at 10N100W, then turns NW through a seconded embedded surface low at 13N113.5W to 15N121W where the trough loses identity in the cyclonic circulation associated with tropical cyclone Hector. Scatterometer winds indicates the monsoon trough resumes SW of Hector near 11N128W and extends SW to beyond 10N140W. Aside from the convection associated with Hector and the tropical waves scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed N of a line from 16N110W to 09N117W to 14N124W, and within 15 nm either side of a line from 10N132W to 07N140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features Paragraph above. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong nocturnal northerly drainage flow is expected to resume tonight across, and about 120 nm downstream, of the gulf waters. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected along 30N while light to gentle southerly flow is expected elsewhere through early Tue when guidance suggests moderate southerly flow will develop across the entire gulf waters. Long period southerly swell is forecast across the southern gulf waters beginning Tue night in association with a tropical low passing SW of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Otherwise, a broad N-NW to S-SE orientated trough will meander E to W across the Baja California Peninsula and the Gulf of California through early next week. Gentle to locally moderate NW breezes, and 3 to 5 ft seas, are forecast W of 108W until the developing tropical low reaches the area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... See Special Features Paragraph above. Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh nocturnal easterly flow is expected through Sun with guidance suggesting strong winds on Sun night and again on Wed night. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 09N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through early next week accompanied by 4 to 6 ft seas, except 6 to 7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features Paragraph above. A ridge will meander from 32N135W to 19N110W through the upcoming weekend, supporting moderate N to NE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas. The ridge will retract W early next week as the tropical low previously mentioned moves northward. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast elsewhere S of the monsoon trough, or roughly to the S of 10N for the next several days. $$ Nelson