102 AXPZ20 KNHC 031554 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Aug 03 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Hurricane Hector centered near 14.1N 128.8W at 03/1500 UTC or 1550 nm E of Hilo Hawaii moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 90 nm of center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 45 nm either side of a line from 14N125W to 10N131W. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed N of 06N along 80W and is estimated to be moving W at 12 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is currently noted to the N of 02N E of 82W. A tropical wave is analyzed N of 08N along 94W and is estimated to be progressing W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is currently noted over water within 300 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave extends from 06N118W to 18N116W and is moving W at 10 kt. Isolated moderate to strong convection is observed S of 15N within 240 nm of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W off the Caribbean coast of Colombia at 09N76W and extends W across Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 08N84W, then continues W to 09N92W, then turns NW to 16N122W where the trough loses identity in the cyclonic circulation associated with tropical cyclone Hector. Scatterometer winds indicates the monsoon trough resumes SW of Hector near 11N128W and extends SW to beyond 10N140W. Aside from the convection associated with Hector and the tropical waves scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed N of a line from 05N83W to 09N107W and from 07N to 17N between 107W and 124W, and within 30 nm either side of a line from 09N132W to 07N139W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong nocturnal northerly drainage flow is expected to resume tonight across, and about 120 nm downstream, of the gulf waters. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected along 30N while light to gentle southerly flow is expected elsewhere through early Tue when guidance suggests moderate southerly flow will develop across the entire gulf waters. Long period southerly swell is forecast across the southern gulf waters beginning Tue night in association with a tropical low passing SW of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. A surface low is forecast to develop near 12N102W by early Sat and move NW across the far offshore waters between 100W and 117W through the middle of next week. Although track and intensity are uncertain, mariners should expect at least increasing southerly winds followed by strong to near gale force easterly winds, and building seas. The low has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in 3 to 5 days. Otherwise, a broad N-NW to S-SE orientated trough will meander E to W across the Baja California Peninsula and the Gulf of California through early next week. Gentle to locally moderate NW breezes, and 3 to 5 ft seas, are forecast W of 108W until the developing tropical low reaches the area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh nocturnal easterly flow is expected through Sun with guidance suggesting strong winds on Sun night and again on Wed night. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 09N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through early next week accompanied by 4 to 6 ft seas, except 6 to 7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the special features section for information on Tropical Cyclone Hector, and refer to the tropical waves section for details on the tropical waves. A surface low is forecast to develop near 12N102W late tonight and move NW to an estimated position near 12N102W on Sat night, near 13n104W on Sun night and near 15N108W on Mon night. This low has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in 3 to 5 days. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS header ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. A second low is forecast to develop along the monsoon trough near 12N113W on Sat and reach near 12N116 on Sun. This low has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in 3 to 5 days. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS header ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. Otherwise, a ridge will meander from 32N135W to 19N110W through the upcoming weekend, supporting moderate N to NE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas. The ridge will retract W early next week as the tropical low previously mentioned moves northward. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast elsewhere S of the monsoon trough, or roughly to the S of 10N for the next several days. $$ Nelson