776 AXPZ20 KNHC 030326 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Aug 3 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Hurricane Hector centered near 14.1N 126.9W at 0300 UTC moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed elsewhere within 120 nm of center, and within 90 nm either side of a line from 14N125W to 12N123W. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is N of 10N along 91W moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south and west of where the wave intersects the monsoon trough between 85W and 93W. A tropical wave axis extends from 07N114W to 18N113W and moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 120 nm W of the wave axis from 13N to 16N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N84W to 09N99W to 15N118W, where the trough loses its identity within the larger cyclonic circulation associated with Hurricane Hector. The monsoon trough resumes SW of Hector near 12N129W and continues to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 45 nm N and 180 nm S of the trough axis between 84W and 109W. Area of scattered moderate isolated strong convection is also observed within 90 nm of 11N117.5W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gentle onshore flow is expected during the daylight hours and moderate to fresh offshore flow is forecast during the overnight hours, with little change through Sat. The northerly drainage flow is expected to increase to 20 to 25 kt across, and about 120 nm downstream, of the gulf waters on Sat and Sun nights. Model guidance suggests a slightly stronger event on Mon night, when seas will build to 10 ft near 15N95W. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected along 30N while light to gentle southerly flow is expected elsewhere through early Sun. Model guidance suggests moderate southerly flow will develop across the entire gulf waters Sun, with little change afterwards through early Tue. A surface low is forecast to develop near 13N104W this weekend then move NW across far offshore waters between 100W and 117W through the middle of next week. Although its actual track and intensity are uncertain, mariners can expect increased southerly winds followed by strong to near gale force easterly winds, and building seas. The low has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the 3-5 day time frame. Otherwise, a broad N-NW to S-SE orientated trough will meander W of the Baja Peninsula and the Gulf of California through the middle of next week. Gentle to locally moderate NW breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are expected until the developing tropical low reaches the area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh nocturnal easterly flow is expected into early next. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, which will meander between 09N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough this weekend, accompanied by 4 to 6 ft seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the special features section for information on Hurricane Hector, and refer to the tropical waves section for details on the tropical waves. A surface low is forecast to develop near 12N100W on Sat and move NW to an estimated position near 13N105W Sun night and near 15N108W on Tue. This low has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in 3-5 days. Otherwise, a ridge will meander from 32N135W to 19N110W through the weekend, supporting moderate N to NE winds and 4-7 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast elsewhere S of 10N for the next several days. $$ Mundell