416 AXPZ20 KNHC 021554 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Aug 02 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Hector centered near 14.2N 124.6W at 02/1500 UTC or 990 nm WSW of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 90 nm of center. Scattered mdoerate isolated strong convection is observed elsewhere within 210 nm SW and 120 nm NW semicircles of center. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed N of 09N along 89W and is estimated to be progressing W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is currently noted over water within 150 nm either side of the wave axis. A tropical wave extends from 07.5N111W to 17N111W and is moving W at 08 kt. A large cluster of scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed w of the wave axis within 180 nm of 11N117W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W off the Caribbean coast of Colombia at 09N76W and extends W across northern Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 09N84W, then continues W to 10N100W, then turns NW to 13N110W where the trough loses identity in the cyclonic circulation associated with tropical cyclone Hector Scatterometer winds indicates the monsoon trough resumes SW of Hector near 11N128W and extends SW to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within a large area bounded by 20N108W to 06N78W to 04N98W to 08N109W to 20N108W, within 180 nm of 11N117W, and within 90 nm either side of a line from 10N131W to 09N138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gentle onshore flow is expected during the daylight hours becoming moderate to fresh offshore flow during the overnight hours through Sat morning. The northerly drainage flow is expected to increase to 20 to 25 kt across, and about 120 nm downstream of the gulf waters on Sat and Sun nights with model guidance suggesting a slightly strong event on Mon night with seas building to 10 ft near 15N95W. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected along 30N with light to gentle southerly flow expected elsewhere through early Sun when guidance suggests moderate southerly flow will develop across the entire gulf waters, with little change through early Tue. A surface low is forecast to develop near 11N100W on Fri night and move NW across the far offshore waters between 100W and 117W through the middle of next week. Although track and intensity are uncertain, mariners should expect increasing southerly winds followed by strong easterly winds, and building seas. The low has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in 3 to 5 days. Otherwise, a broad N-NW to S-SE orientated trough will meander E to W across the Baja California Peninsula and the Gulf of California through the middle of next week. Gentle to locally moderate NW breezes, and 3 to 5 ft seas, are forecast W of 108W until the developing tropical low reaches the area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh nocturnal easterly flow is expected into early next. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 09N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through the upcoming weekend accompanied by 4 to 6 ft seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the special features section for information on Tropical Cyclone Hector, and refer to the tropical waves section for details on the tropical waves. A surface low is forecast to develop near 11N102W on Fri night and move NW to an estimated position near 14N108W on Sun night and near 18N112W on Tue. This low has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in 3 to 5 days. Otherwise, a ridge will meander from 32N135W to 19N110W through the upcoming weekend, supporting moderate N to NE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast elsewhere S of the monsoon trough, or roughly to the S of 10N for the next several days. $$ Nelson