195 AXPZ20 KNHC 312017 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1843 UTC Tue Jul 31 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The low pressure area previously located about 800 miles south- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is upgraded to Tropical Depression Ten-E at 2100 UTC. At this time, the depression is centered near 12.5N 116.1W moving WNW at 10 KT. Estimated minimal central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm NW and 75 nm SE semicircles of center. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP5/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 100W/101W N of 07N. Scattered moderate convection is observed on either side of the wave's axis from 07N to 16N between 99W and 103W. Another tropical wave is along 135W/136W from 08N to 18N. A cluster of scattered moderate to isolated convection is observed mainly where the wave meets the Intertropical Convergence Zone from 07N to 10.5N between 132W and 136W. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere from 07N to 14N between 130W and 138W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N82W to 07N90W to 10N101W to low pressure located near 12.5N116W to 09N130W to 11N137W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) continues from 11N137W to beyond 09N140W. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical waves and T.D. TEN-E, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 84W and 90W, and from 08N to 11N between 120W and 128W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri. Wind are forecast to increase to 20-30 kt across the Tehuantepec region this upcoming weekend as the pressure gradient strengthens across SE Mexico. Elsewhere, a weak ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters W of the Baja California Peninsula, maintaining a weak pressure gradient, with light to gentle NW winds across the region and 3 to 5 ft seas. Then, seas are expected to build to 5 to 7 ft in long period swell late this week, but mainly N of Punta Eugenia. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate easterly flow is expected through the week, occasionally pulsing to fresh during the overnight and early morning hours, with seas building to 6 or 7 ft. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 10N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through the week accompanied by 5 to 7 ft seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Elsewhere, a ridge will persist north of 20N west of 120W through the week, supporting moderate N to NE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast elsewhere S of the monsoon trough or roughly S of 10N for the next several days. An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves west-northwestward off the coast of Mexico. $$ GR