741 AXPZ20 KNHC 311535 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1445 UTC Tue Jul 31 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500OVER THE GYUL UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula continue to show signs of organization. Latest satellite imagery shows a cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection within 120 nm NW quadrant of low center. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while the disturbance moves generally westward at 10 kt. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium change of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 99W/100W N of 08N. Scattered moderate convection is observed on either side of the wave's axis from 08N to 16N between 98W and 102W. Another tropical wave is along 134W/135W from 09N to 20N. Scattered moderate convection is observed near where the wave interacts with the Intertropical Convergence Zone from 07N to 10N between 130W and 138W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N83W to 13N100W to low pressure located near 12N115W to 10N136W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) continues from 10N136W to beyond 09N140W. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical waves and low pressure, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 80W and 88W, and from 08N to 11N between 122W and 128W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Wind are forecast to increase across the Tehuantepec area late this week as a low pressure area develops to the south. Elsewhere, a weak ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters W of the Baja California Peninsula, maintaining a weak pressure gradient, with light to gentle NW winds across the region and 3 to 5 ft seas. Then, seas are expected to build to 5 to 7 ft in long period swell late this week, but mainly N of Punta Eugenia. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate easterly flow is expected through the week, occasionally pulsing to fresh. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 10N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through the week accompanied by 5 to 7 ft seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Elsewhere, a ridge will persist north of 20N west of 120W through the week, supporting moderate N to NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast elsewhere S of the monsoon trough or roughly S of 10N for the next several days. An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves west-northwestward off the coast of Mexico. This low pressure area is forecast to bring an increase in winds and seas across the Tehuantepec area Fri night through Sat night. $$ GR