550 AXPZ20 KNHC 310400 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 UTC Tue Jul 31 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad 1009 mb low pressure is centered along the monsoon trough near 12N112W, NW of Clipperton Island (located at 10.2W 109.2W). This system is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms from 12N to 14N between 112W and 115W. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while the disturbance moves generally westward at 10 kt. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium change of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 93W N of 03N. No significant convection is noted at this time. Another tropical wave is along 134W and from 09N to 23N. Scattered moderate convection is observed near where the wave interacts with the ITCZ from 06N to 10N between 127W and 132W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends 09N78W to 14N105W to low pressure located near 12N112W to 10N125W. The ITCZ continues from 10N125W to 09N140W. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical waves and low pressure, scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 100W and 105W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Wind are forecast to increase across the Tehuantepec area late this week as a low pressure area develops to the south. Elsewhere, a weak ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters W of the Baja California Peninsula, maintaining a weak pressure gradient, with light to gentle NW winds across the region and 3 to 5 ft seas. Then, seas are expected to build to 5-7 ft in long period swell late this week, but mainly N of Punta Eugenia. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate easterly flow is expected through the week, occasionally pulsing to fresh. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 10N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through the week accompanied by 5 to 7 ft seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Elsewhere, a ridge will persist north of 20N west of 120W through the week, supporting moderate N to NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast elsewhere S of the monsoon trough or roughly S of 15N for the next several days. An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves west- northwestward off the coast of Mexico. This low pressure area is forecast to bring an increase in winds and seas across the Tehuantepec area Fri night through Sat night. $$ Christensen