836 
AXPZ20 KNHC 301924
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1820 UTC Mon Jul 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad 1008 mb low pressure is centered along the monsoon 
trough near 11N111W, west of Clipperton Island (located at 10.2W
109.2W). This system is producing a concentrated area of showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to 
gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical 
depression could form during the next few days while the 
disturbance moves generally westward at 10 kt. The latest 
Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium change of 
tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is relocated along 91W N of 05N. No significant 
convection is noted at this time. Only isolated showers are 
noted near the wave's axis between 09N and 12N.

Another tropical wave is also relocated along 130W and extends 
from 09N to 20N. Scattered moderate convection is observed ahead
of the wave axis from 09N to 13N between 130W and 137W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends 10N85W to 13N100W to low pressure
located near 11N111W to 09N120W to 11N130W to 10N135W. The ITCZ 
continues from 10N135W to 09N140W. Outside of the convection
associated with the waves and low pressure, scattered moderate 
convection is noted N of 05N between 78W and 84W. This convective
activity extends over parts of Panama and Costa Rica. 
  
...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: mainly gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail. Winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 kt Wed and Thu. 

Elsewhere, a weak ridge will dominate the offshore forecast
waters W of the Baja California Peninsula, maintaining a weak 
pressure gradient, with light to gentle winds across the region 
and 3 to 5 ft seas.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate easterly flow is expected through the
week, occasionally pulsing to fresh.
  
Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N 
of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 10N. 
Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the 
monsoon trough through the week accompanied by 5 to 7 ft seas.
  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...   

The remnant low of what was Gilma is centered west of the area. 
Scatterometer data indicated moderate to fresh winds between the 
low pressure center and a ridge to the north. Seas may have been 
reaching 8 ft over forecast waters just east of the remnant low, 
but are subsiding quickly.

Elsewhere, a ridge will persist north of 20N west of 120W through
the week, supporting moderate N to NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas 
in that area. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast
elsewhere S of the monsoon trough or roughly S of 10N for the 
next several days. 
  
$$
GR