054 
AXPZ20 KNHC 301546
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1420 UTC Mon Jul 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is relocated along 88W N of 10N. No significant 
convection is noted at this time.

Another tropical wave is also relocated along 129W and extends 
from 10N to 20N. Scattered moderate convection is observed ahead 
of the wave axis from 09N to 12N between 129W and 133W, where NE
winds ahead of the tropical wave are converging into the ITCZ.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends 10N85W to 13N95W to low pressure
located near 10.6N 110.3W to 09N118W. The ITCZ continues from
09N118W to 10N129W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is N of 06N E of 82W. This convective activity parts
of Panama. Scattered moderate from 09N to 12N between 129W and 
137W.
  
...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: mainly gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail. Winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 kt Wed and Thu. 

Elsewhere, a weak ridge will dominate the offshore forecast
waters W of the Baja California Peninsula, maintaining a weak 
pressure gradient, with light to gentle winds across the region 
and 3 to 5 ft seas.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate easterly flow is expected through the
week, occasionally pulsing to fresh.
  
Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N 
of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 10N. 
Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the 
monsoon trough through the week accompanied by 5 to 7 ft seas.
  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...   

A broad 1009 mb low is centered along the monsoon trough near 
10.6N 110.3W, west of Clipperton Island (located at 10.2W 109.2W)
This is in an area of E-SE shear, keeping most of the thunderstorm
activity to the north of the center. Satellite imagery indicates
numerous moderate and isolated strong convection from 10N to 15N
between 109W and 112W. Environmental conditions are currently only
marginally favorable and any development should be slow to
occur over the next couple of days. By mid-week, conditions 
could become a little more conducive for development while the 
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 kt. The latest
Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low change of
tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours.

The remnant low of what was Gilma is centered west of the area. 
Scatterometer data indicated moderate to fresh winds between the
low pressure center and a ridge to the north. Seas may have been
reaching 8 ft over forecast waters just east of the remnant low,
but are subsiding quickly.

Elsewhere, a ridge will persist north of 20N west of 120W through
the week, supporting moderate N to NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas 
in that area. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast
elsewhere S of the monsoon trough or roughly S of 10N for the 
next several days. 
  
$$
GR