897 AXPZ20 KNHC 300912 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 912 UTC Mon Jul 30 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends north of 09N along 97W, into southern Mexico, moving west at around 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. A tropical wave extends from 04N to 15N along 131W moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 10N to 12N between 132W and 135W, where NE winds ahead of the tropical wave are converging into the intertropical convergence zone. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 09N77W to 13N97W to low pressure near 11N108W to 08N120W. Segments of the intertropical convergence zone axis extend from 08N120W to 13N140W. No significant convection other than already mentioned from 10N to 12N between 132W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate northerly nocturnal gap winds will prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, increasing to moderate to fresh by mid week as pressure lowers south of the area. Elsewhere weak ridging extends from 32N140W through the Revillagigedo Islands, maintaining a weak pressure pattern with light to gentle breezes across the region and 3 to 5 ft seas. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate easterly flow is expected through the week, occasionally pulsing to fresh. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 10N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through the week accompanied by 5 to 7 ft seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad 1009 mb low is centered along the monsoon trough near 10.5N109W. This is in an area of E-SE shear, keeping most of the thunderstorm activity to the northwest of the center. A large cluster of thunderstorms approximately 135 nm in diameter has been pulsing for several hours. This may a nocturnal burst that will diminish somewhat later in the morning. Environmental conditions are currently only marginally favorable and any development should be slow to occur over the next couple of days. By mid-week, conditions could become a little more conducive for development while the system moves westward to west- northwestward at 10 kt. The remnant low of what was Gilma is centered west of the area. A scatterometer satellite pass from 07 UTC indicated moderate to fresh winds between the low pressure center and ridging to the north. Seas may have been reaching 8 ft over forecast waters just east of the remnant low, but are subsiding quickly. Elsewhere, ridging will persist north of 20N west of 120W through the week, supporting moderate N to NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in that area. Moderate to locally fresh southerly forecast elsewhere S of the monsoon trough or roughly 10N for the next several days. $$ Christensen