506 
AXPZ20 KNHC 300340
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
340 UTC Mon Jul 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends north of 09N along 95W, into the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, moving west at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed form 08N to 11N between 97W and 
100W, near where the tropical wave interacts with the monsoon 
trough.

A tropical wave extends from 03N to 15N along 130W moving W at 
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed from 09N to 12N between 132W and 135W, where NE winds
ahead of the tropical wave are converging into the intertropical
convergence zone.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 09N77W to
12N95W to low pressure near 10.5N107W to 09N125W. segments of the
intertropical convergence zone axis extend from 09N125W to 
12N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
observed within 90 nm of the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica,
south of the monsoon trough.
  
...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate northerly nocturnal gap winds will
prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, increasing to moderate to
fresh Tue night in the wake of a tropical wave moving westward
across the area. 

Elsewhere weak ridging extends from 32N140W through the 
Revillagigedo Islands, maintaining a weak pressure pattern with
light to gentle breezes across the region and 3 to 5 ft seas.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate easterly flow is expected through the
week, occasionally pulsing to fresh.
  
Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N 
of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 10N. 
Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the 
monsoon trough through the week accompanied by 5 to 7 ft seas.
  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...   

The remnant low of what was Gilma is centered west of the area
near 16N141W. Fresh to occasionally strong winds are active
between the low pressure and ridging north of the area, within
300 nm in the northeast quadrant of the low over forecast waters.
A recent altimeter satellite pass indicated seas to 8 ft in this
area. Significant northwesterly shear is still impacting the low
pressure, with weakening convection well to the southeast of the
exposed low level center. Winds and seas will be subsiding east
of 140W through early Mon as the low pressure continues to move
westward and weaken.

Thunderstorms are pulsing within 210 nm northwest of a broad low pressure
centered along the monsoon trough near 10.5N107W. This system has
not become any more organized over the past 24 hours. Environmental
conditions are currently only marginally favorable and any development
should be slow to occur over the next couple of days. By mid-week,
conditions could become a little more conducive for development 
while the system moves westward to west- northwestward at 10 kt.
Fresh southerly winds will continue to converge into the monsoon
trough south of the low pressure area. Earlier altimeter passes
showed associated seas to 8 ft around 210 nm southeast of the 
low pressure. 

Otherwise, ridging will persist north of 20N west of 120W 
through the week, supporting moderate N to NE winds and 5 to 7 
ft seas in that area. Moderate to locally fresh southerly 
forecast elsewhere S of the monsoon trough or roughly 10N for the
next several days. 
  
$$
Christensen