699 AXPZ20 KNHC 261547 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jul 25 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A surface low is analyzed at 11N121W and estimated at 1011 mb. Strong NE to E winds are observed within 270 nm over the N semicircle of the low with 9 to 11 ft seas. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed within 210 nm over the NW semicircle of of the low. This low has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days as it tracks W- NW. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS headers ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. A surface low is analyzed at 11N134.5W and estimated at 1009 mb. Strong NE to E winds are observed within 180 nm over the N quadrant of the low with 7 to 9 ft seas. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed within 270 nm E and within 90 nm W semicircles of the low center. This low has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days as it tracks W- NW. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS headers ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed over NW Colombia and should move of the Pacific coast of Colombia tonight. A tropical wave is analyzed N of 07N along 91W and is estimated to be progressing W at 22 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted to the N of 10N within 120 nm either side of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W off the Caribbean coast of Colombia at 10N76W and extends W across the northern Gulf of Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 09N84W through a tropical wave at 08N91W to 08N97W, then turns NW to 12N117W where it loses identity. Scatterometer winds indicate an ITCZ develops at 10.5N123.5W and extends SW to 10N131W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed elsewhere within 180 nm either side of a line from 07N77W to 07N96W, and within 120 nm either side of a line from 11N109W to 11N121W to 07N136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad trough will meander N-NW to S-SE across the Baja Peninsula across the entrance to the Gulf of California through the upcoming weekend with a second weak trough forecast to also meander across the offshore waters W of the northern Baja Peninsula. Light to gentle breezes are forecast W of Baja Peninsula and Mexico the remainder of the week accompanied by 3 to 6 ft seas. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gentle to moderate onshore flow is expected during the daylight hours then becoming light offshore flow during the overnight hours. Gulf of California: Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are expected N of 29N through Sat night. Otherwise gentle to locally moderate southerly flow expected through the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh easterly flow is expected through early Fri afternoon followed by mostly moderate E flow through the weekend. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 10N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough for the next several days accompanied by 5 to 7 ft seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge will meander across the discussion area from 32N128W to near 14N104W. See the special features and tropical waves section above for details on a series of waves and lows analyzed S of the ridge. $$ Nelson