315 AXPZ20 KNHC 260300 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jul 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS... Tropical wave N of 05N along 89W moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N within 90 nm either side of the wave axis. Tropical wave from 16N118W to 07N120W moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm E and 60 nm W of wave axis. A surface low is forecast to develop along this wave near 13N124W in about 24 hours, and the low may become a tropical cyclone in the next 2-3 days as it moves W-NW. A 1010 mb surface low analyzed near 10N130W is moving W at 15 kt accompanied by scattered moderate to strong convection within 90 nm of the circulation center. This low is forecast to move west and weaken as it approaches 140W during the next 48 hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends westward from 10N84W to 08N94W to 11N109W. The ITCZ continues from 11N109W to 10N119W to 09N124W to 10N129W to 09N135W to 10N140W. Except as mentioned near the tropical waves and the tropical low, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 180 nm south of the ITCZ axis west of 112W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad trough will meander N-NW to S-SE over the Baja Peninsula and the southern Gulf of California for the rest of the week. A NW-SE oriented surface ridge west of Baja Peninsula will support light to gentle breezes for the rest of the week accompanied by 3-6 ft seas, including the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are expected N of the monsoon trough, which will meander between 07N and 10N, while moderate to fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the trough axis. Fresh easterly flow is expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through Friday afternoon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge will meander across the discussion area from 30N140W to near 20N114W with a weak trough analyzed N of the ridge from 35N130W to 31N137W. See the tropical waves section above for details on a series of waves and lows analyzed S of the ridge along the convergence zone axis. Long period northerly swell, in the form of 7-9 ft seas, is forecast N of 30N between 119W and 123W through the upcoming weekend. $$ Mundell