361 
AXPZ20 KNHC 250900
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jul 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave from 06N to 15N along 97W is moving west at 15 
kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm either side of 
the wave axis. The wave is depicted as a longitudinal surge of 
tropical moisture on TPW imagery.

A tropical wave from 15N111W to 05N112W is moving west at 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N 
to 15N between 110W and 115W. The wave is depicted as a well 
defined surge of tropical moisture on TPW imagery.

A tropical wave from 07N to 17N along 137W is moving west at 15 
kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 45 nm either side of 
the wave axis south of 10N. The wave is depicted as a broad area 
of tropical moisture on TPW imagery. The wave will move west of 
140W tonight.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends westward from 08N78W to 10N90W 
to 10N111W. The ITCZ extends from 09N113W to low pressure near 
11N126W 1011 mb to 11N136W to 10N140W. Aside from convection 
associated with tropical waves and associated lows, scattered 
moderate convection is within 240 nm of the axis west of 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge extends east-southeastward from 32N130W to near the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle northwest winds in the 
offshore waters is expected to persist during the next several 
days. Long period SW cross-equatorial swell is fading, and seas 
will slowly subside through the remainder of the week. Gap winds 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are not expected to be a significant 
marine weather feature during the forecast period.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are forecast north of 
the monsoon trough, which will meander west of Central America 
between 07N and 10N. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds 
are expected south of the trough axis the next few days. Long 
period SW cross-equatorial swell is fading, and seas will slowly 
subside through the remainder of the week.

Fresh NE to E nocturnal winds are likely in the Gulf of Papagayo 
the remainder of this week. Downstream seas will be 5 to 7 ft. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

An active convergence zone boundary is across the E Pacific, 
with multiple low level cyclonic circulations evident from 
animated satellite imagery. These circulations or perturbations 
along the monsoon trough and ITCZ will induce small areas of 
fresh to strong winds primarily the NE semicircle, with seas 
building to 8-9 ft. The GFS global model favors development of a 
tropical low from the wave currently near 111W-112W during the 
next 2-3 days as it moves west-northwest over open ocean. 

Long-period SW swell from the southern hemisphere is diminishing 
and seas across the area outside of the perturbations along the 
convergence zone will subside during the next 2-3 days. Another 
smaller surge of SW swell will cross the equator late this week.

$$
Mundell