924 
AXPZ20 KNHC 250300
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jul 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave from 06N to 14N along 95W is moving west at 15 
kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm either side of 
the wave axis. The wave is depicted as a longitudinal surge of 
tropical moisture on TPW imagery.

A tropical wave from 16N109W to 07N111W is moving west at 15-20 
kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 
10N to 15N between 110W and 113W. The wave is depicted as a well 
defined surge of tropical moisture on TPW imagery.

A tropical wave from 07N to 17N along 136W is moving west at 15 
kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm either side of 
the wave axis. The wave is depicted as a broad area of tropical 
moisture on TPW imagery. The wave will move west of 140W on Wed.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends westward from 08N78W to 10N90W 
to 11N106W to 09N117W. The ITCZ continues from 09N117W to low 
pressure near 12N124W 1011 mb to 12N136W to 10N140W. Aside from 
convection associated with tropical waves and associated lows, 
scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm south of the axis 
west of 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge extends east-southeastward from 32N130W to near the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle northwest winds in the 
offshore waters is expected to persist during the next several 
days. Long period SW cross-equatorial swell is fading, and seas 
will slowly subside through the remainder of the week. Gap winds 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are not expected to be a significant 
marine weather hazard during the forecast period.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are forecast north of 
the monsoon trough, which will meander west of Central America 
between 07N and 10N. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds 
are expected south of the trough axis the next few days. Long 
period SW cross-equatorial swell is fading, and seas will slowly 
subside through the remainder of the week.

Fresh NE to E nocturnal winds are likely in the Gulf of Papagayo 
the remainder of this week. Downstream seas will be 5 to 7 ft. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

An active convergence zone boundary is across the E Pacific, 
with multiple low level cyclonic circulations evident from 
animated satellite imagery. These circulations or perturbations 
along the monsoon trough and ITCZ will induce small areas of 
fresh to strong winds primarily the NE semicircle, with seas 
building to 8-9 ft. The GFS global model favors development of a 
tropical low from the wave currently depicted near 110W during 
the next 2-3 days as it moves west-northwest over open ocean. 

Long-period SW swell from the southern hemisphere is diminishing 
and seas across the area outside of the perturbations along the 
convergence zone will subside during the next 2-3 days. Another 
smaller surge of SW swell will cross the equator late this week.

$$
Mundell