868 AXPZ20 KNHC 220350 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 UTC Sun Jul 22 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis from 05N86W to 22N85W, moving westward around 10 kt. The wave is evident in 700 mb model guidance streamlines as well as a maximum in total precipitable water satellite imagery. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted N of 05N between 83W and 94W. A tropical wave has an axis from 06N116W to 17N115W, moving westward between 15 and 20 kt. The wave is associated with troughing at 700 mb in model guidance as well as a maximum in total precipitable water satellite imagery. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 08N to 13N between 122W and 126W. A tropical wave has an axis from 03N124W to 14N123W, moving westward around 15 kt. The wave is weak, but can be tracked via subtle 700 mb troughing in model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 13N between 122W and 126W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 10N85W to 09N90W to 11N99W to 09N124W to 13N133W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found within 90 nm of a line from 07N96W to 10N106W. A 1008 mb surface low is centered near 13N136W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 12N between 133W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends SE from 26N123W to ESE of the Revillagigedo Islands near 18N107W. The ridge is maintaining light to moderate NW winds across the Mexican offshore waters, except for the Gulf of Tehuantepec discussed below. Little change is expected in these conditions during the next several days. A long period SW cross-equatorial swell is affecting the waters S of 15N. This extensive swell event will continue spreading N and will cause seas to build to between 7 and 9 ft in the open waters for all the forecast zones through early next week. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, pulses of fresh to strong N gap winds will occur during the late night and morning hours until Mon morning. Wind waves generated by these N winds will interact with the SW swell event to produce mixed seas south of the Gulf peaking near 10 ft on Sun before winds subside on Mon morning. Seas near the Gulf of Tehuantepec will remain above 8 ft until Wed morning as SW swell continue to arrive. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse during the late night and morning hours through Tue morning, then winds during this time frame will taper to fresh. Seas from these NE to E winds will interact with the SW swell event to produce mixed seas SW in the Gulf as high as 10 ft on Mon before seas begin to subside on Tue. Easterly winds of only moderate or weaker are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which will meander west of Central America between 07N and 10N. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are generally expected S of the trough axis during the next several days. A long-period SW cross-equatorial swell event is already affecting the region as seas S of the equator have risen to 8 ft. Seas will peak between 8 and 10 ft on Mon in the open waters, with the highest seas expected W of Ecuador. A low latitude tropical wave currently over Colombia may reach the waters S of 07N by Sun evening and enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity S of Panama and Costa Rica. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broken surface ridge hangs on from 32N140W to 26N123W, then from 26N123W to ESE of the Revillagigedo Islands near 18N107W. The ridge is maintaining mainly moderate trade winds N of the monsoon trough, S of 20N and W of 115W. Little change in this pattern is expected for the next several days. Swell to 8 ft generated by strong winds N of the area is propagating S to cover the discussion waters N of 29N between 129W and 136W. This swell will continue to affect this region while slowly shifting westward through Mon. A 1008 mb area of low pressure is centered near 13N136W. Fresh to strong winds are occurring within about 270 nm N of the low center with associated seas to 9 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 12N between 133W and 140W. This low and associated conditions will move W of the discussion area by Mon morning. Large long period SW swell is crossing the equator, with seas of 8 to 10 ft extending from the equator northward to a line from 03.4S82W to 00N86W to 12N104W to 13N121W to 04N137W, as confirmed by recent satellite-derived sea height data. The swell will continue to propagate N and bring seas of 8 ft or above to most of the area S of 25N and east of 133W Mon, before the swell decay and seas subside on Tue. $$ CAM