023 AXPZ20 KNHC 141523 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1518 UTC Sat Jul 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... .A tropical wave is analyzed from 08N101W to 17N101W and is moving W at around 20 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection are observed from 08N to 16N between 99W and 107W. .A tropical wave is analyzed from 08N113W to 17N111W and is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 13N between 107W and 114W. .A tropical wave is analyzed from 07N122W to 17N122W and is moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are observed from 06N to 12N between 120W and 127W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W from 09N78W to 08N90W to 07N108W. The ITCZ begins near 07N108W and continues to 08N112W, then resumes near 08N113W to 09N121W, then resumes again near 09N122W to 08N140W. Low pres of 1009 mb is just N of the ITCZ near 11N132W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 10N to 15N between 127W and 138W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are within 150 nm of either side of the monsoon trough axis E of 94W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Pulses of strong northerly drainage flow, accompanied by 6 to 8 ft seas, will continue through the middle of next week. A surface ridge will meander across the area from near 23N117W to 16N106W through the middle of next week. Light to gentle anticyclonic northerly winds are expected around the ridge axis, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Gulf of California: Light to gentle southerly flow is expected for the next 48 hours, except moderate southerly flow will develop along 30N this evening, and persist through Mon morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong nocturnal NE to E offshore winds, with seas to 8 ft, will occur across and within about 90 nm WSW of the gulf waters this afternoon through Tue morning, then followed by brief strong nocturnal pulses during the middle of next week. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 07N and 10N. Moderate southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough for the next few days with 4 to 6 ft seas. Extended model guidance is suggesting that long period southerly swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will arrive along 03.4S to the E of 93W on Thu night, and propagate N reaching the far offshore waters along 09N next weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak surface low is analyzed near 11N132W. The pressure gradient between this low and high pres to the north will support fresh to locally strong trades across the tropics from roughly 12N to 20N, W of 128W, with seas to 11 ft. The low is expected to move W passing 11N140W on Sun night with little change in conditions through that time. Associated conditions should be w of 140W early Tue. Cross equatorial swell of 7 to 9 ft will spread N of the equator to about 09N between 93W and 135W starting Wed night through the end of next week. A surface ridge will meander across the discussion area from 32N140W to 23N117W to 16N106W through the middle of next week, with moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow forecast elsewhere around the ridge accompanied by 5 to 7 ft seas. $$ Latto