186 
AXPZ20 KNHC 140902
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jul 14 2018 

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.  

...TROPICAL WAVES...

.A tropical wave is analyzed from 08N100W to 17N100W and is 
moving W at 18 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is observed S of 15N within 240 nm either side of the 
wave axis.

.A tropical wave is analyzed from 08N111W to 17N110W and is 
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed S 
of 13N within 120 nm of the wave axis.

.A tropical wave is analyzed from 07N121W TO 17N122W moving W at 
12 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed 
S of 13N within 240 nm either side of the wave axis. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends W off the Caribbean coast of Colombia 
at 10N76W to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 08N101W, then 
continues W through tropical waves at 09N100W and 08N111W to 
09N114W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an 
ITCZ which continues W to 10N125W to beyond 11N140W.

Except as mentioned near the tropical waves, scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is observed within 150 nm either side 
of a line from 08N77W to 09N91W, and within 240 nm either side 
of a line from 11N101w to 12N136W. 
  
 ...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Pulses of strong northerly drainage flow, 
accompanied by 6 to 8 ft seas, will continue through the middle 
of next week. 
    
A surface ridge will meander across the area from near 23N117W 
to 15N100W through the middle of next week. Light to gentle 
anticyclonic northerly winds are expected around the ridge axis, 
with 3 to 5 ft seas.   
  
Gulf of California: Light to gentle southerly flow expected for 
the next 48 hours, except moderate southerly flow will develop 
along 30N this evening, and persist through Mon morning. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong nocturnal NE to E offshore winds, with 
seas to 8 ft, will occur across and within 330 nm SW of the Gulf 
of Papagayo through late morning, with the strong winds then 
only forecast to extend only about 90 nm SW of the gulf waters 
this afternoon through Tue morning, then followed by brief 
strong nocturnal pulses during the middle of next week. 

Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N 
of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 07N and 10N. 
Moderate southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough 
for the next several days with 4 to 6 ft seas.

Extended model guidance is suggesting that long period southerly 
swell, in the form of 7 to 8 ft seas, will arrive along 03.4S to 
the E of 93W on Thu night, and propagate N reaching the far 
offshore waters along 09N next weekend.   
  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
   
A weak surface low is analyzed near 11N132W. The pressure 
gradient will support fresh to locally strong trades across the 
tropics from roughly 12N to 20N, W of 128W, with seas to 11 ft 
through . The low is expected to move W passing 11N140W on Sun 
night with little change in conditions through that time. 
Associated conditions should be w of 140W early Tue. 

A surface ridge will meander across the discussion area from 
32N140W to 23N117W through the middle of next week, with 
moderate to locally fresh anticylonic flow forecast elsewhere 
around the ridge accompanied by 5 to 7 ft seas. 
  
$$
Nelson