661 AXPZ20 KNHC 140356 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jul 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... .A tropical wave is analyzed from 08N95W to 16N94W and is moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed N of 15N within 30 nm either side of the wave axis. .A tropical wave is analyzed from 06N110W to 18N107W and is moving W at 12 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 09N to 14N within 240 nm E of the wave axis. .A tropical wave is analyzed from 06N120W TO 17N121W moving W at 12 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed S of 14N within 240 nm either side of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends NW off the Pacific coast of Colombia at 09N93W to 08N101W, then turns w through tropical waves at 09N94W and 09N110W and 11N121W then SW to 09N140W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ which continues W to beyond 09N140W. Except as mentioned near the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 75 nm either side of a line from 07N81W to 10N87W, within 240 nm either side of lines from 11N97W to 13N109W and from 11N123W to 17N138W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 30 nm of the coast of Mexico from 23N to 27N. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Pulses of strong northerly drainage flow, accompanied by 6 to 8 ft seas, will continue through the middle of next week. A surface ridge will meander across the area from 23N117W to 15N100W through the middle of next week. Light to gentle northerly winds are expected around the ridge axis with 3 to 5 ft seas. Gulf of California: Light to gentle southerly flow expected for the next 48 hours, except moderate southerly flow is expected to develop along 30N on Sat evening, and persist through Mon morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong nocturnal NE to E offshore winds, with seas to 8 ft, will occur across and within 330 nm SW of the Gulf of Papagayo through midday on Sat, with the strong winds then only forecast to extend only about 90 nm SW of the gulf waters through Tue morning, then followed by brief strong nocturnal pulses during the middle of next week. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 07N and 10N. Moderate southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough for the next several days with 4 to 6 ft seas. Extended model guidance is suggesting that long period southerly swell, in the form of 7 to 8 ft seas, will arrive along 03.4S E of 93W on Thu night and reach the far offshore waters near 10N93W on Fri night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak surface low is analyzed near 11N131W. The pressure gradient is supporting fresh to locally strong trades across the tropics from roughly 12N to 20N, W of 128W, with seas to 10 ft. The low is expected to move W passing 11N140W on Sun night with little change in conditions through that time. A surface ridge will meander across the discussion area from 32N140W to 23N117W through the middle of next week, with moderate to locally fresh anticylonic flow forecast elsewhere around the ridge accompanied by 5 to 7 ft seas. $$ Nelson