678 AXPZ20 KNHC 132150 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jul 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed to the N of 10N then over Central America near 93W moving W at 10-15 kt. The tropical wave is most apparent in the 700 mb rawindsonde winds from Belize and Acapulco, though it may also be contributing toward the surface northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. No significant deep convection is apparent with this wave. A tropical wave is analyzed from 07N to 17N near 107W moving W at about 10 kt. There is no substantial surface component to this wave, as it is only seen in the 700 mb trough diagnostics. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 120 nm E of the axis between 10N-13N. A tropical wave is analyzed from 06N to 16N near 118W moving W at about 10 kt. There is no substantial surface component to this wave and it is only weakly seen in the 700 mb trough diagnostics. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 180 nm W of the axis from 11-14N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends westward from a 1009 mb low near 10N74W over the coast of Colombia, across Panama and Costa Rica, to 08N100W to a 1010 mb low near 10N132W. The ITCZ then starts at 11N133W reaching to a 1010 mb low near 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed over and S of Panama and Costa Rica from 04N-10N between 78W-87W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is also noted within 180 nm N of the trough from 97W-108W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed within 180 nm of the trough between 120W-132W. The low near 140W has scattered moderate and isolated strong convection within 180 nm in its northern semicircle. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: A broad surface high pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico along with the diurnally-produced surface trough from the Yucatan are helping induce northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These are stronger during the late night/morning hours and are expected to be strong breeze to near gale each morning through Mon, before weakening some on Tue and Wed. Peak seas are expected to be 8-9 ft through Mon. A surface ridge extends into the area from 30N135W to 20N110W. Light to gentle northerly winds are expected around the ridge axis and west of 100W for the next several days with 3 to 5 ft seas. Gulf of California: Light to gentle southerly flow expected for the next several days, except moderate SE flow is expected to occur near 30N on Sun and Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong Caribbean tradewinds pushing across Central America are causing strong NE to E offshore winds, which will reach strong breeze conditions in late night/morning hours. Peak seas should reach 8 to 9 ft. These conditions should weaken slightly on Sun, but continue through Wed. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 07N and 10N. Moderate southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough for the next several days with 4 to 6 ft seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A moderate pressure gradient between the ITCZ/monsoon trough and the surface ridge to the north are causing NE to E strong breeze tradewinds W of 125W. An 1842 UTC scatterometer pass showed peak winds of 25-30 kt along 130W. A couple of weak lows - one at 132W and the other at 140W - are showing no signs of tropical development, though the former one does have a low (30 percent) chance of genesis within the next three days. Peak seas are currently near 8-9 ft and are expected to remain below 12 ft in our area (E of 140W). A surface ridge will meander across the discussion area from 32N138W to 23N117W through the middle of next week, with moderate to locally fresh anticylonic flow forecast elsewhere around the ridge accompanied by 5 to 7 ft seas. $$ Landsea