247 AXPZ20 KNHC 131530 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jul 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed to the N of 09N then over Central America near 92W moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 09N-13N within 300 nm W of the wave axis. A tropical wave is analyzed from 07N to 17N near 107W moving W at 5-10 kt. No significant deep convection is associated with the wave at this time. A tropical wave is analyzed from 06N to 16N near 118W moving W at 5-10 kt. No significant deep convection is associated with the wave at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama and Costa Rica westward off of the Costa Rica coast near 09N83W to 09N106W. The ITCZ then starts at 09N108W reaching to 12N136W ending at a 1008 mb low near 13N138W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed S of Panama and Costa Rica from 03N-08N between 77W-86W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is also noted within 180 nm N of the trough from 92W- 105W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is observed within 180 nm of the ITCZ between 121W-128W. The 1008 mb low has scattered moderate and isolated strong convection within 180 nm in its northern semicircle. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Northerly drainage flow, with 7 to 10 ft seas, is likely at strong breeze conditions currently, should diminish during afternoon hours, but resume a strong breeze or near gale conditions late tonight and early on Sat. These daily variations should continue through Mon, before weakening on Tue and Wed. A surface ridge extends into the area from 30N140W to 25N115W. Light to gentle northerly winds are expected around the ridge axis and west of 100W for the next several days with 3 to 5 ft seas. Gulf of California: Light to gentle southerly flow expected for the next 48 hours, except moderate SW flow is expected to develop along 30N on Sat evening, and persist through Mon morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong nocturnal NE to E offshore winds, with seas to 8 ft, will occur across and within 240 nm SW of the Gulf of Papagayo through sunrise on Mon, followed by brief strong nocturnal pulses on Tue and Wed. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 07N and 10N. Moderate southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough for the next several days with 4 to 6 ft seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The ITCZ bulges N between 128W and 135W effectively tightening the pressure gradient across the deep tropics resulting in area of fresh to locally strong trades from roughly 11N to 18N, W of 130W, with seas to 9 ft. A blend of model guidance leads to a solution of a surface trough, or surface low developing near 11N138W this weekend, with strong E winds across the waters to the from about 13N to 18N W of 134W. A surface ridge will meander across the discussion area from 32N138W to 23N117W through the middle of next week, with moderate to locally fresh anticylonic flow forecast elsewhere around the ridge accompanied by 5 to 7 ft seas. $$ Landsea/Nelson