253 
AXPZ20 KNHC 130348
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jul 13 2018 

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0345 UTC.  

...TROPICAL WAVES...

.A tropical wave is analyzed to the N of 09N along 89W moving W 
at 12 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
observed N of 12.5N within 30 nm either side of the wave axis 
and extends inland across El Salvador.

.A tropical wave is analyzed from 06N to 18N along 105W moving W 
at 12 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
observed S of 10N within 180 nm either side of the wave axis.

.A tropical wave is analyzed from 06N117W to 17N117W moving W at 
12 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed S of 
10N within 1800 nm either side of the wave axis. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends west across off the Caribbean coast 
of Colombia at 09N75W across the far SW Caribbean along 10N to 
the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 11N86W, then dips SW to 
08N95W, then turns NW through tropical waves at 10N105W and 
10N117W to 12N122W where scatterometer winds indicate a 
transition to an ITCZ which continues SW to beyond 10N140W.

Except as mentioned near the tropical waves, scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is observed within 240 nm either side 
of a line from 09N93W to 09N115W to 15N131W to 11N137W. Similar 
convection is noted within 60 nm of 20N106W.
  
...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong to near gale force northerly 
drainage flow, with 7 to 10 ft seas, will briefly end early Fri 
morning with a strong breeze resuming on Fri afternoon, and then 
persisting through late Sun as a tropical wave passes through 
the area.
   
A surface ridge extends into the area from 23N117W to 14N98W. 
Light to gentle northerly winds are expected around the ridge 
axis and west of 100W for the next several days with 3 to 5 ft 
seas.   
  
Gulf of California: Light to gentle southerly flow expected for 
the next 48 hours, except moderate SW flow is expected to 
develop along 30N on Sat evening, and persist through Mon 
morning.    

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong nocturnal NE to E offshore winds, with 
seas to 8 ft, will occur across and within 240 nm SW of the Gulf 
of Papagayo through sunrise on Mon.

Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N 
of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 07N and 10N. 
Moderate southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough 
for the next several days with 4 to 6 ft seas.  
  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
   
The ITCZ bulges N between 132W and 138W effectively tightening 
the pressure gradient across the deep tropics resulting in area 
of fresh to locally strong trades from roughly 11N to 18N, W of 
130W, with seas to 9 ft. A blend of model guidance leads to a 
solution of a N to S surface trough, or surface low developing 
near 11N138W late Sun, with strong E winds across the waters 
from about 13N to 18N W of 134W.
 
A surface ridge will meander across the discussion area from 
32N138W to 23N117W through the middle of next week, with 
moderate to locally fresh anticlyonic flow forecast elsewhere 
around the ridge accompanied by 5 to 7 ft seas. 
  
$$
Nelson