838 
AXPZ20 KNHC 120900
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jul 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is from 08N to 18N along 107W, moving W at 15 
kt. Scattered moderate showers are well E of wave axis.

A tropical wave is from 09N to 20N along 133W, moving W at 15 to 
20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong showers from 09N to 
13N between 129W and 137W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough snakes across most of the forecast area in 
the tropics from 10N83W to 07N93W to 09N101W to 08N110W to 
11N126W to 10N130W. The ITCZ extends from 09N135W to 07N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is south of the axis from 05N to 
08N between 90W and 99W. A large area of scattered moderate 
convection is from 10N to 15N between 121W and 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure in the Gulf of Mexico and 
northerly winds east of a trough in the Bay of Campeche will 
enhance the nocturnal drainage flow in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Peak winds may approach 30 knots each late night/early morning 
through Monday. 

A surface trough west of Baja California is supporting a weak 
pressure pattern N of 15N W of 96W across the offshore waters, 
promoting mainly gentle winds. The trough will meander between 
115W and 120W during the next few days, which will help maintain 
weak flow across the region into the weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong nocturnal NE to E winds, with 8 to 10 
ft seas, are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo Friday night and 
Saturday.

Gentle to moderate easterly winds are expected elsewhere north 
of the monsoon trough, with gentle southerly winds forecast 
south of the trough axis.
  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1009 mb low pressure center is analyzed near 10N133W, at the 
southern end of the tropical wave along 133W. The low will move 
slowly NW during the next 24-48 hours. Fresh NE to E winds and 8 
foot seas may develop within 90-210 nm north of the low center 
during the next 12-24 hours. Expect NE to E 20 to 25 knot winds 
and sea heights reaching 8-9 feet within 200 nm to 300 nm to the 
north of the low center during the next few days.

$$
Mundell