556 
AXPZ20 KNHC 112052
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jul 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2000 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 102W/103W from 19N southward, moving W 
15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong rainshowers over 
land from 18N to 21N between 102W and 105W. widely scattered 
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers in the eastern Pacific 
Ocean from the monsoon trough to 14N between 95W and 110W.

A tropical wave is along 126W/127W from 20N southward, moving W 
15 kt. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers 
from 07N to 15N between 120W and 130W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough passes through 10N86W, to 09N92W, to 10N111W.
The ITCZ continues from 10N111W to 11N123W, to 1009 mb low 
pressure center near 10N127W, beyond 08N140W. widely scattered 
moderate to isolated strong within 330 nm S of monsoon 
trough/ITCZ from 120W eastward. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure in the Gulf of Mexico, and 
northerly winds east of a trough in the Bay of Campeche, will 
enhance the nocturnal drainage flow in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Expect at least fresh-to-strong winds from today until late 
Thursday afternoon, from Thursday night until late Friday 
morning, and from Saturday morning until Monday morning. The 
peak wind speeds may reach 30 knots each late night/early 
morning from Thursday through Monday. 

A surface trough pattern to the west of Baja California is 
supporting a weak pressure pattern N of 15N W of 96W across the 
offshore waters, promoting mainly gentle winds. The trough will 
meander between 115W and 120W during the next few days, which 
will help maintain weak flow in+
3 the region into the weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Pulses of NE to E winds will start late 
tonight into Thursday morning, and late on Thursday into early 
Friday. Strong nocturnal NE to E winds, with sea heights ranging 
from 8 to 10 ft, are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo from 
Friday morning until Saturday night. Expect 8 foot sea heights 
downstream on Saturday afternoon as far as 10N93W.

Gentle to moderate easterly winds are expected elsewhere north 
of the monsoon trough, with gentle southerly winds forecast 
south of the trough axis.
  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 10N127W, at the southern 
end of a tropical wave that is along 126W/127W from 20N 
southward. The low pressure center is forecast to move NW with 
time. It is possible that NE winds 20 to 25 knots and 8 foot 
seas may develop within 90 nm to 210 nm to the north of the low 
center, during the next 6 to 12 hours. The low center is 
forecast to move NW with time, at 24 hours 1008 mb near 12N132W, 
at 36 hours 1007 mb near 13N133W, and at 48 hours 1008 mb near 
14N133W. Expect NE to E 20 to 25 knot winds and sea heights 
reaching 8 feet, in general, within 200 nm to 300 nm to the 
north of the low center during the next few days. It is possible 
that the sea heights may reach 12 feet at 36 hours, about 180 nm 
to the NNE of the low center.

$$
MT