358 
AXPZ20 KNHC 111604
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jul 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 101W/102W from 19N southward, moving W 
15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong rainshowers from 
17N to 19N between 102W and 104W. widely scattered moderate to 
isolated strong rainshowers from 10N to 14N between 99W and 104W.

A tropical wave is along 125W/127W from 20N southward, moving W 
15 kt. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers 
from ITCZ to 19N between 115W and 132W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough passes through 09N78W to 09N84W, to 10N102W 
to 09N111W. The ITCZ continues from 09N111W to 09N117W, 11N122W, 
to 1009 mb low pressure center near 10N126W, beyond 08N140W. 
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 270 nm S of 
monsoon trough/ITCZ from 120W eastward. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure in the Gulf of Mexico, and 
northerly winds east of a trough in the Bay of Campeche, will 
enhance the nocturnal drainage flow in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 
with peak winds around 30 knots each night through Sunday night. 

A surface trough pattern to the west of Baja California is 
supporting a weak pressure pattern N of 15N W of 96W across the 
offshore waters, promoting mainly gentle winds. The trough will 
meander between 115W and 120W during the next few days, which 
will help maintain weak flow in+
3 the region into the weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Pulses of NE to E winds will start late on 
Wednesday into Thursday, and late on Thursday into early Friday. 
Strong nocturnal NE to E winds, with seas to 10 ft, are expected 
in the Gulf of Papagayo from Friday morning until Saturday 
night. 

Gentle to moderate easterly winds are expected elsewhere north 
of the monsoon trough, with gentle southerly winds forecast 
south of the trough axis.
  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 10N126W, at the southern 
end of a tropical wave that is along 125W/127W from 20N 
southward. The low pressure center is forecast to move NW with 
time. It is possible that NE winds 20 to 25 knots and 8 foot 
seas may develop to the north of the low center, during the next 
12 to 18 hours. The low center is forecast to move NW with time, 
at 24 hours near 12N132W, and at 48 hours near 14N133W. A NE-to-
SW oriented surface trough will be associated with the low 
center during the next two days. Expect NE to E 20 to 25 knot 
winds and sea heights reaching 8 feet to the north of the low 
center at 24 hours. Expect NE to E 20 to 30 winds, and sea 
heights to 11 feet to the north of the low center at 48 hours.

Any remaining cross-equatorial southerly swell of 7-8 ft that 
was affecting the waters from 02S southward between 100W and 
115W during the last 24 hours, is continuing to weaken with time 
and/or already has weakened.

$$
MT