841 AXPZ20 KNHC 102132 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2056 UTC Tue Jul 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed from 09N97W to 16N97W to southeastern Mexico moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed S of 13N within 90 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is analyzed from 06N118W to 19N118W moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed S of 14N within 180 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is analyzed from 07N127W to 19N127W moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 15N between 123W and 130W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N80W to 08N100W. The ITCZ begins near 08N100W and extends to 09N116W, then resumes from 09N129W to beyond 06N140W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 09N between 78W and 100W, and from 06N to 12N between 100W and 115W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure north of the region along with nocturnal drainage flow will support near gale force northerly winds and seas up to 10 ft tonight and again Wed night, then strong each night through the remainder of the week. Fresh to strong winds may linger into the daytime hours each day. Surface troughing west of Baja California is supporting a weak pressure pattern N of 15N W of 96W across the offshore waters promoting mainly gentle winds. The trough W of Baja California is expected to meander over the region the next couple of days, which will help maintain the weak flow over the region. Gulf of California: Gentle to occasionally moderate southerly flow expected for the next 48 hours. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong nocturnal offshore winds, with seas to 8 ft, will occur across and within 150 nm downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo this evening through Wed night. Gentle to occasionally moderate easterly winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 06N and 09N. Moderate southerly winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough this week with 5 to 7 ft seas primarily due to cross-equatorial southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough that extends from 20N129W to 27N124W will meander over the region the next couple of days. Fresh northerly winds are occurring between this trough and high pressure NW of the region. These winds and accompanying 7 ft seas are likely occurring within about 450 nm W of the trough. The fresh winds will expand westward through midweek. The combination of the wind waves and SW swell over the western portion of the region will generate seas of 8 ft over the discussion waters from 24N to 27W W of 130W by tonight. These seas 8 ft or greater will then shift west of 140W by Thu evening. A 1011 mb low will form near 11N130W Wed evening. A area of N of the center from 11N to 15N between 128W and 131W will produce winds 20 to 25 kt and seas to 8 ft. This low will deepen and move NW Thu and Fri with 30 kt winds and seas to 12 ft. Cross equatorial swell of 7 to 8 ft will spread north of the equator today, spreading as far as 08N between 100W and 120W by Wed evening. The swell will then diminish below 8 ft by Thu morning. $$ Formosa