632 AXPZ20 KNHC 101603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1441 UTC Tue Jul 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed from 09N95W to 16N95W to southeastern Mexico moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed N of 14N within 90 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is analyzed from 06N116W to 19N115W moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are observed S of 10N within 90 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is analyzed from 07N126W to 19N126W moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are observed from 05N to 14N between 120W and 129W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N80W to 08N100W. The ITCZ begins near 08N100W and extends to 09N114W, then resumes from 09N117W to 07N127W to beyond 06N140W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are from 04N to 10N between 78W and 86W, from 04N to 09N between 92W and 98W and from 05N to 14N between 115W and 129W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure north of the region along with nocturnal drainage flow will support near gale force northerly winds and seas up to 10 ft tonight and again Wed night, then strong each night through the remainder of the week. Fresh to strong winds may linger into the daytime hours each day. Surface troughing west of Baja California is supporting a weak pressure pattern N of 15N W of 96W across the offshore waters promoting mainly gentle winds. The trough W of Baja California is expected to meander over the region the next couple of days, which will help maintain the weak flow over the region. Gulf of California: Gentle to occasionally moderate southerly flow expected for the next 48 hours. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong nocturnal offshore winds, with seas to 8 ft, will occur across and within 150 nm downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo today, then will resume Thu night. Gentle to occasionally moderate easterly winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 06N and 09N. Moderate southerly winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough this week with 5 to 7 ft seas primarily due to cross-equatorial southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough that extends from 20N126W to 28N125W will meander over the region the next couple of days. Fresh northerly winds are occurring between this trough and high pressure NW of the region. These winds and accompanying 7 ft seas are likely occurring within about 450 nm W of the trough. The fresh winds will expand westward through midweek. The combination of the wind waves and SW swell over the western portion of the region will generate seas of 8 ft over the discussion waters from 21N to 26W W of 137W by Wed evening. These seas 8 ft or greater will then shift west of 140W by Thu evening. Cross equatorial swell of 7 to 8 ft will spread north of the equator today, spreading as far as 08N between 100W and 120W by Wed evening. The swell will then diminish below 8 ft by Thu morning. $$ Formosa