000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092200 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jul 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... .A tropical wave is starting to move over the Nicaragua offshore waters. Its axis is N of 09N along 87W, moving W at 10-15 kt. No deep or significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. .A tropical wave is analyzed from 06.5N110.5W to 18N109W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 10N between 103W and 113W. .A tropical wave is analyzed from 06N121W to 18N119W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to 15N between 114W and 126W. .A tropical wave is analyzed from 07N133W to 18N130W moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection from 05N to 12N between 127W and 135W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 07N90W to 07N100W. The ITCZ begins near 07N100W and extends to 08N108W, then resumes from 08N112W to 08N119W, then resumes again from 08N123W to 10N131W...then resumes west of the westernmost tropical wave near 10N133W to 08N140W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 09N E of 102W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 12N W of 126W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure in the Gulf of Mexico along with northerly winds induced by a surface trough moving across the central Bay of Campeche are supporting a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. North to northeast winds are of a magnitude of 20 to 25 kt, which is increasing to 30 kt at night enhanced by the nocturnal drainage flow. Seas with fresh to strong winds are building to 9 ft and increase to 10 ft in the evening when the winds reach its peak intensity. The gap wind event is forecast to continue through the weekend. However, since high pressure north of the area is expected to weaken, the peak of the winds is forecast to decrease to 25 kt starting Sat night. The remnants of Fabio are analyzed as a surface trough west of the offshores of Baja California extending from 22N123W to 28N122W. This trough supports a weak pressure pattern, thus light to gentle variable winds off the Baja peninsula. The remnants of Fabio and a weak center of high pressure W of central Baja California are expected to meander west of the offshores through Wed, which will help maintain the weak variable flow off Baja. A strong ridge building NW of the area will then extend a ridge axis just west of the offshores and wind will shift from the N-NW. Gulf of California: Gentle to occasionally moderate southerly flow will continue through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong nocturnal offshore winds, with seas to 8 ft, will occur across and within 120 nm downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Tue afternoon, then will resume Fri evening continuing through the weekend. Gentle to occasionally moderate easterly winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 06N and 09N. Moderate southerly winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough this week with 5 to 7 ft seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak surface ridge is over the remainder waters N of 18N W of 124W. The pressure gradient between this building ridge and the remnants of Fabio to the east supports moderate NE winds N of 26N between 123W and 130W. However, NE winds N of 20N are forecast to increase to fresh Tue through Thu as the center of high pressure NW of the area strengthen while the remnants of Fabio continue to move west. Otherwise, three waves move over the tropical Pacific waters with moderate to isolated fresh winds in its vicinity along with scattered to isolated strong convection. See the waves section for further details. $$ Ramos/Sangster