000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082150 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jul 08 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... .A tropical wave is analyzed to the N of 06N along 103W moving W at 12 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed S of 16N within 240 nm either side of the wave axis. .A tropical wave is analyzed from 06N to 18N along 112.5W moving W at 12 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed S of 13N within 90 nm E and within 270 nm w of the wave axis. .A tropical wave is analyzed from 07N125W to 17N121W moving W at 12 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed S of 13.5N within 270 nm either side of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends west across off the Caribbean coast of Colombia at 08N78W and across the Gulf of Panama and western Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 09N84W, then continues W-SW to 07N104W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ which continues W to beyond 09N140W. The ITCZ is briefly interrupted by the previously mentioned tropical waves. Except as noted near the tropical waves scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 60 nm either side of a line from 05N77W to 05N84W to 08N100W and from 05N to 16N between 100W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong northerly drainage flow, with 7 to 9 ft seas, will resume early tonight and then persist this week. A surface trough extends S into the area from 32N119W to 23N119W. Further to the S a surface ridge enters the area at 22N116W and extends SE to 15N97W. Light southerly winds are observed E of the trough and W of the Baja Peninsula, with light NW to N winds elsewhere W of Gulf of Tehuantepec area. Little change forecast for the next 48 hours. Gulf of California: Light to gentle southerly flow expected for the next 48 hours. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong nocturnal offshore winds, with seas to 8 ft, will occur across and within 150 nm downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through sunrise on Tue. Gentle to occasionally moderate easterly winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 06N and 09N. Moderate southerly winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough this week with 5 to 8 ft seas primarily due to cross-equatorial southerly swell which will subside to 4 to 7 ft on Mon evening. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The post-tropical remnant low of Fabio is centered near 26N139W, moving W-NW. Associated winds have diminished to 20 kt or less. An area of 7 to 10 ft seas across the forecast waters NW of the low center will subside to less than 8 ft overnight. A surface trough extending S into the area from 32N119W to 23N119W will shift W from 32N118W to 23N123W on Mon, then meander along this position gradually dissipating during mid week. Fresh northerly winds, and 7 to 9 ft seas currently observed N of 28N within 270 nm W of the trough, will diminish across the waters S of 30N on Mon, but spread back S of 30N on Tue. Cross equatorial swell combined with swell propagating W from the Gulf of Papagayo will support 7 to 9 ft S of 12N between 80W and 100W through late Mon. $$ Nelson