000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081610
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jul 08 2018 

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1545 UTC.  

...TROPICAL WAVES...

.A tropical wave is analyzed to the N of 06N along 102W moving W 
at 12 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
observed S of 15N within 240 nm either side of the wave axis.

.A tropical wave is analyzed from 06N to 18N along 112W moving W 
at 12 kt. Isolated moderate to strong convection is observed S 
of 13N within 90 nm either side of the wave axis.

.A tropical wave is analyzed from 07N123W to 18N121W moving W at 
10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed S of 
13N within 240 nm either side of the wave axis. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends west across off the Caribbean coast 
of Colombia at 08N78W and across the Gulf of Panama and western 
Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 09N84W, then 
continues W-SW to 07N100W where scatterometer winds indicate a 
transition to an ITCZ which continues W-NW to 11N123W, then 
turns SW to beyond 09N140W. The ITCZ is briefly interrupted by 
the previously mentioned tropical waves.  

Except as noted near the tropical waves scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is observed within 45 nm either side 
of a line from 04N77W to 09N91W and from 05N to 13N between 99W 
and 140W.  
...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong northerly drainage flow, with 7 to 9 
ft seas, will continue through early this afternoon then resume 
again early tonight and then persist this week.   

A surface trough extends S into the area from 32N119W to 
23N119W. Further to the S a surface ridge enters the area at 
22N116W and extends SE to 15N97W. Light southerly winds are 
observed E of the trough and W of the Baja Peninsula with the 
light wind flow becoming NW to N to the W of Gulf of Tehuantepec 
area. Little change forecast for the next 48 hours.    

Gulf of California: Light to gentle southerly flow expected 
for the next 48 hours.    

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong nocturnal offshore winds, with seas to 
8 ft, will occur across and within 150 nm downstream of the Gulf 
of Papagayo through Mon night.

Gentle to occasionally moderate easterly winds are forecast 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough which is meandering 
between 06N and 09N. Moderate southerly winds are forecast south 
of the monsoon trough this week with 5 to 8 ft seas primarily 
due to cross-equatorial southerly swell which will subside to 4 
to 7 ft on Mon evening.  
  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
   
The post-tropical remnant low of Fabio is centered near 26N137W, 
moving W-NW. Associated winds have diminished to 20 kt or less. 
An area of 7 to 10 ft seas across the forecast waters NW of the 
low center should subside to less than 8 ft overnight. 

A surface trough extending S into the area from 32N119W to 
23N119W will shift W from 32N118W to 23N123W on Mon, then 
meander along this position gradually dissipating during mid 
week. Fresh northerly winds, and 7 to 9 ft seas currently 
observed N of 28N within 270 nm W of the trough, will diminish 
across the waters S of 30N on Mon, but spread back S to along 
29N on Tue. 
  
Cross equatorial swell combined with swell propagating W from 
the Gulf of Papagayo will support 7 to 9 ft S of 12N between 80W 
and 100W through late Mon. 
  
$$
Nelson