000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072039 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jul 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec extending from SE Mexico near 19N96W to 09N96W, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from from 10N to 15N between 93W and 100W. A tropical wave is along 102W N of 06N moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 10N to 15N between 100W and 104W. A tropical wave is from 05N to 16N along 116W moving west at around 15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 09N between 115W and 120W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 05N to 13N between 110W and 120W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N98W. The ITCZ begins near 09N98W and continues to 10N102W, then resumes near 10N103W to 08N110W to 08N115W...resuming W of a tropical wave near 08N117W to 09N124W...resuming W of a surface trough from 08N128W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 12.5N between 89W and 98W, and from 05N to 11N west of 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge axis extends from a center of high pressure NW of the forecast waters to near 20N124W. A weak pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough in the Gulf of California supports light to gentle NW winds offshore Baja California, and variable light to gentle winds over the Gulf of California. Latest scatterometer data show a new surface trough west of the offshores of Baja California Norte. This new trough will drift westward the next few days, eroding the ridge, and allowing for winds to become variable through Tue. Light to gentle NW winds will resume thereafter through Thu. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Latest scatterometer data show fresh to near gale force gap winds this afternoon and early this evening. Model guidance indicate high pressure will prevail north of the area, which in part is going to support the continuation of the gap wind event through Thu night. Seas are expected to build up to 9 ft with peak winds of 25 kt. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong nocturnal winds will continue downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon night with seas to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate easterly winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, which will meander between 07N and 09N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial swell of 8 ft is on the offshore waters of Ecuador and is forecast to reach the offs of Colombia Sun morning. The swell will prevail across these locations through Mon evening when is forecast to subside. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The post-tropical remnant low of Fabio is centered near 24N134W, moving WNW. Scattered showers are occurring N of the low between 132W and 134W. Winds of 20 to 30 kt are within about 210 nm of the north semicircle of the low with seas to 13 ft. These winds are continue to be generated by the pressure gradient between the remnant low, and high pressure centered NW of the forecast waters. A larger area of swell 8 ft to 10 ft covers the waters N of 19N W of 130W. The winds in the northern semicircle are forecast to decrease to fresh to strong tonight and the low is expected to dissipate early on Sun. A remnant surface trough is forecast to move west of the NW forecast waters Sun afternoon along with the associated swell. Strong NW winds north of the area along the California coast is supporting 8 to 9 ft seas in northerly swell in the waters N of 28N between 120W and 124W. The pressure gradient over southern California offshore waters will decrease Sun afternoon, thus allowing this area of swell to subside. Otherwise, cross-equatorial swell combined with wind waves from the Gulf of Papagayo will generate seas to 9 ft S of 12N and E of about 102W Sun and Mon. $$ Ramos