000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070926 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0930 UTC Sat Jul 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern portion of a tropical wave extends across SE Mexico along 94W to near 12N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are from 11N to 15N between 92W and 97W. A tropical wave is along 101W from 07N to 17N moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are from 09N to 15N between 98W and 101W. A tropical wave is along 114W/115W from 05N to 15N moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 09N between 113W and 117W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 09N95W. The ITCZ begins near 07N102W and continues to 07N114W, then resumes near 09N117W to 09N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are within 180 nm of either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis, and from 02N to 06N E of 79W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge axis extends from high pressure NW of the region to near the Revillagigedo Islands. A surface trough extends across Baja California. The pressure gradient between these features supports mainly moderate NW winds offshore Baja California, and gentle to moderate winds over the Gulf of California. A separate surface trough is expected to develop today just west of Baja California and drift westward the next few days, eroding the ridge, and allowing for winds over the offshore waters to decrease under 10 kt N of 20N. Meanwhile, NW swell generated by strong winds offshore California will propagate offshore Baja California Norte this weekend, generating seas of 6 to 8 ft. Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure north of the region along with nocturnal enhancements will support strong to near gale force northerly winds with seas up to 10 ft each night through Wed night of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong nocturnal winds will continue downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through at least Tue night, with seas to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate easterly winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, which will meander between 06N and 09N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial swell greater than 8 ft will reach the offshore waters of Ecuador and Colombia Sat and Sun mornings, respectively, and will linger across these locations through Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The post-tropical remnant low of Fabio is centered near 23N132W, moving WNW. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring between the center and 31N between 130W and 134W. Winds of 20 to 30 kt are within about 240 nm of the northern semicircle of the low as confirmed by a 0538 UTC scatterometer pass. These winds are being produced by the pressure gradient between the weakening low, and high pressure to the north of the region. Seas to 14 ft continue under the stronger winds, as confirmed by a 0300 UTC altimeter pass, with a larger area of swell 8 ft or greater covering the waters W of a line from 30N125W to 06N133W. The strong winds will slowly decrease in areal coverage and intensity as the low continues to weaken and degenerates into a trough of low pressure by Sun. The associated area of swell will shrink in size this weekend, with seas diminishing below 8 ft over this region by Mon morning. Strong NW winds north of the area along the California coast will cause 8 to 9 ft seas in northerly swell to reach the waters N of 28N between 120W and 125W from now through most of Mon, before retreating to along and N of 30N through midweek. Cross equatorial swell combined with wind waves from the Gulf of Papagayo will generate seas to 9 ft S of 12N and E of about 102W Sun and Mon. $$ Latto