000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070403 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0350 UTC Sat Jul 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 112W/113W from 05N to 15N moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 14N between 110W and 115W. A tropical wave is along 99W from 07N to 16N moving west at around 15 kt. No significant convection is noted over the discussion waters. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 09N90W to 09N97W. The ITCZ begins near 10N115W and continues to 11N130W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are within 180 nm of either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis, and from 09N to 12N between 104W and 108W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge axis extends from high pressure NW of the region to near the Revillagigedo Islands. A surface trough extends across Baja California. The pressure gradient between these features supports mainly moderate NW winds offshore Baja California, and gentle to moderate winds over the Gulf of California. The trough is expected to drift westward this weekend, allowing for winds over the offshore waters to decrease under 10 kt N of 20N. Meanwhile, NW swell generated by strong winds offshore California will propagate offshore Baja California Norte this weekend, generating seas of 6 to 8 ft. Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure north of the region along with nocturnal enhancements will support fresh to strong winds with seas up to 10 ft mainly at night through Wed of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong nocturnal winds will continue downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through at least Tue night, with seas to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate easterly winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, which will meander between 06N and 09N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial swell greater than 8 ft will reach the offshore waters of Ecuador and Colombia Sat and Sun mornings, respectively, and will linger across these locations through Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Post-tropical remnant low Fabio is centered near 24N131W. No significant convection is associated with Fabio. Winds of 20 to 30 kt are confined to within about 240 nm north of the center. These winds are being produced by the pressure gradient between the weakening low, and high pressure to the north of the region. Seas to 14 ft continue under the stronger winds, with a larger area of swell 8 ft or greater covering the waters W of a line from 30N124W to 05N135W. The strong winds will slowly decrease in areal coverage and intensity as the low continues to weaken and degenerates into a trough of low pressure by Sun. The associated area of swell will shrink in size this weekend, with the swell 8 ft or greater diminishing by Mon morning. Strong NW winds north of the area along the California coast will cause 8-9 ft N swell to reach the waters N of 29N between 120W and 124W tonight, and N of 28N between 121W and 125W on Sun afternoon. This area of swell will then subside Mon afternoon. $$ Latto