000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062159 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jul 6 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave along 111W moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 13N between 107W and 115W. A tropical wave is along 95W moving west at 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with the wave at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 10N101W to 09N114W. The ITCZ begins near 08N115W and continues along 09N128W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is N of 05N E of 84W...from 05N to 10N between 84W and 92W, and from 09N to 14N between 99W and 107W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N between 120W and 128W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge continue to build between post-tropical low Fabio and the Baja Peninsula where an elongated area of low pressure prevails. This is supporting a weak pressure gradient off Baja and generally light to gentle NW to N winds continuing through the middle of next week. However, winds will become mostly variable Sat through Tue night as a weak surface low develops in the northern Gulf of California and tracks westward towards Baja California Norte offshores. The low will weaken into a surface trough that will meander west of the northern offshores Sun night through Mon night. A weak center of high pressure developing thereafter west of the Baja California Sur offshores, will dissipate Tue morning allowing the return of N to NW light to gentle winds. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong winds with seas up to 10 ft will continue to pulse mainly at night through Wed of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong nocturnal winds will continue downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun night. Gentle to moderate easterly winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, which will meander between 06N and 09N. Light to gentle southerly winds are expected south of the trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial swell will reach the offshores of Ecuador and Colombia Sat and Sun mornings, respectively. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Post-tropical low Fabio is centered near 22.5N 131.0W at 1800 UTC, moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. No significant convection is associated with Fabio. Fabio is expected to continue to weaken and degenerate into a trough of low pressure early on Sun. Fresh to strong NE winds will prevail in the NW quadrant of low through early Sun as the remnant low interacts with a strong high pressure ridge to the north. A large area of mixed swell generated by post-tropical low Fabio will maintain seas 8 ft or higher in waters N of 10N and W of 126W this evening. This area of large seas will gradually shrink in size and shift W of 130W Sat morning, and N of 24N W of 137W by Sun afternoon. Strong NNW winds north of the area along the California coast will cause 8-9 ft N swell to reach the waters N of 29N between 120W and 124W tonight, and N of 28N between 121W and 125W on Sun afternoon. This area of swell will then subside Mon afternoon. $$ Ramos