000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060900 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jul 6 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Fabio is centered near 21.5N 129.0W at 0900 UTC, moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. No significant convection is associated with the tropical cyclone. Fabio is expected to continue to weaken, becoming a remnant low within 24 hours. However, it is likely to maintain an area of stronger winds in its northern semicircle while a remnant low as it interacts with a strong high pressure ridge to the north. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave along 108W between 03N-14N is moving west at 15 kt. It has scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 06N to 11N between 105W and 111W. A tropical wave N of 05N along 93W is moving west at 15 kt. It has very little convection near its wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 08N88W to 10N92W to 07N107W to 08N115W. The ITCZ begins near 12N128W and extends to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 75 nm either side of the trough axis between 83W and 115W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge gradually building between Fabio and the Baja Peninsula will support light to moderate NW to N winds through early Sat. A weak surface low is forecast to develop over the northern Gulf of California Sat morning. These features will induce light and variable winds in the entire Gulf of California and along the west coast of Baja California this weekend. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong winds with seas up to 10 ft will continue to pulse mainly at night through Wed of next week. This gap wind event is expected to peak late tonight, when winds are forecast to reach near gale force. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong nocturnal offshore winds will develop downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo beginning tonight, then continue through Mon night. Gentle to moderate easterly winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough which as it meanders between 07N and 10N. Light to gentle southerly winds are expected south of the trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial swell will reach offshore of Ecuador by Sat morning. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A large area of mixed swell generated by TS Fabio will maintain seas 8 ft or higher in waters N of 13N and W of 123W today. This area of large seas will gradually shrink in size and shift W of 130W this weekend as the remnant low maintains fresh to locally strong winds in its north semicircle. Strong NNW winds north of the area along the California coast will cause 7-8 ft N swell to reach the waters W of Baja California Norte late tonight. $$ Mundell