000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060300
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jul 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC. 
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Storm Fabio is centered near 21.2N 128.0W at 0300 UTC, 
moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 17N to 20N between 124W 
and 127W. Fabio is expected to continue to weaken, and become a 
remnant low within 24 hours. However, it is likely to maintain 
stronger winds in its north semicircle as a remnant low as it 
interacts with strong high pressure to the north. See latest NHC 
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave along 107W between 03N-14N is moving west at 15 
kt. It has scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 
06N to 10N between 106W and 110W.

A tropical wave N of 05N along 92W is moving west at 15 kt. It 
has isolated convection within 60 nm of the wave axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 10N92W to 07N107W to 
08N115W. The ITCZ begins near 12N128W and extends to 09N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 45 nm of the trough axis 
between 87W and 113W.
  
...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge gradually building between Fabio and the Baja 
Peninsula will support light to moderate NW to N winds through 
Fri night. A weak surface low is forecast to develop over the 
northern Gulf of California early Sat. Light variable winds are 
expected in the Gulf of California and along the Baja peninsula 
this weekend.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong winds with seas up to 10 ft 
will continue to pulse mainly at night through Wed next week. 
This gap wind event is expected to peak late tonight when winds 
are forecast to reach near gale force.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong nocturnal offshore winds will 
develop downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo beginning Fri night, 
and continue through Sun night.

Gentle to moderate easterly winds are forecast elsewhere north 
of the monsoon trough which as it meanders between 07N and 10N. 
Light to moderate southerly winds are expected S of the trough 
axis. Long period cross-equatorial swell will reach offshore of 
Ecuador by Sat morning.   
  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
   
A large area of mixed swell generated by TS Fabio will maintain 
seas 8 ft or higher in waters N of 12N and W of 120W overnight. 
This area of large seas will slowly shrink in size and shift W 
of 130W this weekend as remnant low Fabio maintains fresh winds 
in its north semicircle. Strong NNW winds along the California 
coast will cause 7-8 ft N swell to propagate into the waters W 
of Baja California Norte late Fri night through Sun.
  
$$
Mundell