000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jul 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Fabio is centered near 20.6N 126.9W at 05/2100 UTC or 1010 miles W of the southern tip of Baja California, moving NW at 15 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 18N to 22N between 123W and 128W. Fabio is expected to maintain a NW to WNW motion at a similar forward speed during the next several days. Additional weakening is likely, and Fabio is forecast to become a remnant low in a day or two. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis extending from 03N106W TO 15N106W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 11.5N between 100W and 112W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N96W to 07N112W. The ITCZ begins near 11N126W and continues along 11N126W to 10N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 07N E of 80W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 14N between 91W and 100W and from 07N to 11N W of 138W. See special features and tropical waves sections for other areas of convection. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the special features section for details regarding Tropical Storm Fabio. Fabio continues to track WNW away from the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. Seas of 7 to 8 ft W of the Baja Peninsula will subside to between 5 and 7 ft tonight as Fabio continues to weaken while tracking WNW. A surface ridge gradually building in between Fabio and the Baja Peninsula will then support light to moderate NW to N winds through Fri night. A weak surface low with associated trough is forecast to develop over the northern Gulf of California early on Sat and move to Baja California Norte offshore waters in the evening. This will allow for a reduced pressure gradient, thus light and variable winds over the pacific forecast zones during the weekend and continuing through early next week. Gulf of California: A surface trough developing over the northern Gulf of California early on Sat will support light to gentle variable winds over the weekend. Low pressure will prevail in the region and north of the Gulf, thus allowing the continuation of these winds through Tue. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong winds with seas up to 10 ft will continue to pulse mainly at night through Wed next week. This gap wind event is expected to peak late tonight when winds are forecast to reach near gale-force. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong nocturnal offshore winds will occur across and within 240 nm downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo beginning early Sat morning and continuing through Sun night. Gentle to occasionally moderate easterly winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 06N and 10N. Light to moderate southerly winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough the middle of next week with 5 to 8 ft seas primarily due to a new set of cross- equatorial southerly swell entering the offshores W of Ecuador Sat morning. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A large area of mixed swell generated by Fabio will maintain a large area of seas 8 ft or higher for the waters N of 10N and W of 120W tonight. This area of 8 ft seas is expected to shrink and shift W of 130W by Sat morning and W of 135W by Sun morning as Fabio continue to weaken and track WNW. Strong NW winds blowing along the California coast will cause swell to propagate into the waters W of Baja California Norte as far S as 27N from late Fri night through Sun. $$ Ramos