000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050856 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 641 UTC Thu Jul 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Newly downgraded Tropical Storm Fabio is centered near 19.3N 123.9W at 05/0900 UTC or 815 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California, moving NW at 14 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is observed in the NW semicircle within 90 nm. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 150 nm of the center. Fabio is expected to maintain a NW to WNW motion at a similar forward speed during the next several days. Rapid weakening is forecast, and Fabio will likely degenerate into a remnant low on Friday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis extending from 03N104W to 15N103W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to 11N between 100W and 106W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1008 mb near 10N74W to 09N78W to 11N86W to 07N102W to 08N110W. The ITCZ reaches from 12N127W to 10N132W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 03N to 09N between 88W and 96W. See special features and tropical waves sections for other areas of convection. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the special features section for details regarding Tropical Storm Fabio. Fabio continues to track WNW away from the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. Seas of 7 to 10 ft W of the Baja Peninsula will subside to between 5 and 7 ft by Fri evening as Fabio continues weakening and tracking WNW. A surface ridge gradually building in between Fabio and the Baja Peninsula will then support light to moderate NW to N winds through Sat night. A weak surface trough developing along 118W will support light and variable winds over the pacific forecast zones over the weekend through early next week. Gulf of California: A surface trough developing over the peninsula will support light to gentle variable winds over the Gulf through early next week, except that moderate winds will develop Sat and Mon as the trough over the peninsula sharpens. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong nocturnal drainage winds will commence tonight with seas building to 9 ft. Strong winds will continue to pulse at night through the middle of next week. This gap wind event is expected to peak late Fri night when winds reach near gale force and seas build to around 10 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong nocturnal offshore winds will occur across and within 240 nm downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo beginning Fri night and continuing through Sun night. Gentle to occasionally moderate easterly winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 10N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough this week with 5 to 8 ft seas primarily due to cross-equatorial southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough constituting the remnants of Emilia has crossed to the W of 140W. An area of seas associated with the trough is evident W of a line from 27N137W to 22N137W. This area of seas will move west of the area this morning as the trough continues to head W and weaken. A large area of mixed swell generated by Fabio will maintain a large area of seas 8 ft or higher for the waters N of 10N and W of 120W today. This area of 8 ft seas is expected to shrink and shift to the W of a line from 30N130W to 10N138W by Sun morning as Fabio weakens and tracks WNW to NW. Strong NW winds blowing along the California coast will cause swell to propagate into the waters W of Baja California Norte as far S as 27N from late Fri night through Sun. $$ CAM