000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050346 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 148 UTC Thu Jul 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Hurricane Fabio centered near 18.4N 122.7W at 05/0300 UTC or 765 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California, moving WNW at 12 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is observed in the N semicircle within 90 nm. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere from 11N to 21N between 119W and 125W. Additional weakening is forecast, and Fabio is expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday. Continued weakening is expected thereafter, and Fabio will likely degenerate into a remnant low by early this weekend. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis extending from 02N103W to 16N102W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 02N to 07N between 100W and 106W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 09N78W to 11N83W to 06N101W to 07N111W...then resumes from 12N125W to low pres 1007 mb near 09N138W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 210 nm NE quadrant of low. See special features and tropical waves sections for other areas of convection. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the special features section for details regarding Hurricane Fabio. Fabio continues to track WNW away from the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. Seas of 7 to 10 ft W of the Baja Peninsula will subside to between 5 and 7 ft by Fri evening as Fabio continues weakening and tracking WNW. A surface ridge gradually building in between Fabio and the Baja Peninsula will then support light to moderate NW to N winds through Sat night. A weak surface trough developing along 118W will support light and variable winds over the pacific forecast zones over the weekend through early next week. Gulf of California: A surface trough developing over the peninsula will support light to gentle variable winds over the Gulf through early next week, except that moderate winds will develop Sat and Mon as the trough over the peninsula sharpens. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong nocturnal drainage winds will commence tonight with seas building to 9 ft. Strong winds will continue to pulse at night through the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong nocturnal offshore winds will occur across and within 240 nm downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo beginning Fri night and continuing through Sun night. Gentle to occasionally moderate easterly winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 10N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough this week with 5 to 8 ft seas primarily due to cross-equatorial southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough constituting the remnants of Emilia has crossed to the W of 140W. An area of seas associated with the trough is evident W of a line from 28N140W to 26N136W to 23N137W to 21N140W. These conditions will move west of the area tonight as the trough continues to head W and weaken. Strong NW winds blowing along the California coast will cause swell to propagate into the waters W of Baja California Norte as far S as 27N from late Fri night through Sun. $$ CAM